Cyprus, just.
TestedCyprus win about 40 times in 100. The other 60: a draw (30) or an Armenia win (30).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 2–0: Vesta gave this result 40%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals41%
Both teams score48%
Expected goals1.3 v 1.1
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals68%
3 or more goals41%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedCyprus: 1 or more72%
Cyprus: 2 or more36%
Cyprus: 3 or more13%
Armenia: 1 or more66%
Armenia: 2 or more29%
Armenia: 3 or more9%
Both teams score48%
At least one team does not score52%
Winning margin
TestedCyprus by 3 or more6%
Cyprus by 212%
Cyprus by 122%
Draw30%
Armenia by 118%
Armenia by 28%
Armenia by 3 or more4%
Result combinations
TestedCyprus win or draw70%
Either team wins (no draw)70%
Armenia win or draw60%
Clean sheets
TestedCyprus keep a clean sheet34%
Armenia keep a clean sheet28%
Cyprus win without conceding24%
Armenia win without conceding18%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateCyprus score first49%
Armenia score first41%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-758%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Cyprus goals down, Armenia goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | · |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half64%
A goal in the second half72%
Cyprus ahead at half-time30%
Level at half-time46%
Armenia ahead at half-time24%
Cyprus win the second half33%
Second half level40%
Armenia win the second half26%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateCyprus ahead at half-time, Cyprus win23%
Level at half-time, Cyprus win15%
Armenia ahead at half-time, Cyprus win2%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Armenia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Cyprus ahead at half-time, Armenia win2%
Level at half-time, Armenia win12%
Armenia ahead at half-time, Armenia win17%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
CyprusArmenia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works