- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Faroe Islands v Slovakia
17%Faroe Islands
26%Draw
57%Slovakia
Slovakia ahead.
TestedSlovakia win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (26) or a Faroe Islands win (17).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 1–1: Vesta gave this result 26%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals45%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals0.8 v 1.7
Most likely score0-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals45%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedFaroe Islands: 1 or more56%
Faroe Islands: 2 or more20%
Faroe Islands: 3 or more5%
Slovakia: 1 or more81%
Slovakia: 2 or more49%
Slovakia: 3 or more23%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedFaroe Islands by 3 or more1%
Faroe Islands by 24%
Faroe Islands by 112%
Draw26%
Slovakia by 125%
Slovakia by 218%
Slovakia by 3 or more14%
Result combinations
TestedFaroe Islands win or draw43%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Slovakia win or draw83%
Clean sheets
TestedFaroe Islands keep a clean sheet19%
Slovakia keep a clean sheet44%
Faroe Islands win without conceding10%
Slovakia win without conceding35%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateFaroe Islands score first30%
Slovakia score first61%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Faroe Islands goals down, Slovakia goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time16%
Level at half-time42%
Slovakia ahead at half-time41%
Faroe Islands win the second half17%
Second half level38%
Slovakia win the second half45%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateFaroe Islands ahead at half-time, Faroe Islands win9%
Level at half-time, Faroe Islands win7%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, Faroe Islands win1%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, Slovakia win2%
Level at half-time, Slovakia win18%
Slovakia ahead at half-time, Slovakia win36%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Faroe IslandsSlovakia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works