France, clearly.
TestedFrance win about 72 times in 100. The other 28: a draw (19) or an Italy win (9).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 1–1: Vesta gave this result 19%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals53%
Both teams score42%
Expected goals2.2 v 0.6
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals93%
2 or more goals77%
3 or more goals53%
4 or more goals31%
5 or more goals15%
Exactly
0 goals7%
1 goal16%
2 goals24%
3 goals22%
4 goals16%
5 goals9%
6 or more goals6%
Goals by team
TestedFrance: 1 or more88%
France: 2 or more64%
France: 3 or more37%
Italy: 1 or more47%
Italy: 2 or more13%
Italy: 3 or more3%
Both teams score42%
At least one team does not score58%
Winning margin
TestedFrance by 3 or more26%
France by 222%
France by 124%
Draw19%
Italy by 17%
Italy by 22%
Italy by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedFrance win or draw91%
Either team wins (no draw)81%
Italy win or draw28%
Clean sheets
TestedFrance keep a clean sheet53%
Italy keep a clean sheet12%
France win without conceding47%
Italy win without conceding5%
No goals at all7%
The first goal
Model estimateFrance score first72%
Italy score first21%
No goals7%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1533%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+5%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: France goals down, Italy goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 1 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half71%
A goal in the second half78%
France ahead at half-time52%
Level at half-time38%
Italy ahead at half-time10%
France win the second half58%
Second half level32%
Italy win the second half11%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves26%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateFrance ahead at half-time, France win48%
Level at half-time, France win22%
Italy ahead at half-time, France win3%
France ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw12%
Italy ahead at half-time, draw3%
France ahead at half-time, Italy win0%
Level at half-time, Italy win4%
Italy ahead at half-time, Italy win4%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
FranceItaly
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works