Poland ahead.
TestedPoland win about 57 times in 100. The other 43: a draw (26) or a Romania win (17).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 6–0: Vesta gave this result 57%. The favourite came through.
3 or more goals45%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.7 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals45%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals11%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedPoland: 1 or more81%
Poland: 2 or more49%
Poland: 3 or more23%
Romania: 1 or more56%
Romania: 2 or more19%
Romania: 3 or more5%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedPoland by 3 or more14%
Poland by 218%
Poland by 125%
Draw26%
Romania by 112%
Romania by 24%
Romania by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedPoland win or draw83%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Romania win or draw43%
Clean sheets
TestedPoland keep a clean sheet44%
Romania keep a clean sheet19%
Poland win without conceding35%
Romania win without conceding10%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimatePoland score first61%
Romania score first30%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Poland goals down, Romania goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
Poland ahead at half-time40%
Level at half-time43%
Romania ahead at half-time17%
Poland win the second half46%
Second half level37%
Romania win the second half17%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimatePoland ahead at half-time, Poland win35%
Level at half-time, Poland win19%
Romania ahead at half-time, Poland win3%
Poland ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Romania ahead at half-time, draw5%
Poland ahead at half-time, Romania win1%
Level at half-time, Romania win7%
Romania ahead at half-time, Romania win9%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
PolandRomania
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works