- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Lucia v Guadeloupe
18%Saint Lucia
26%Draw
56%Guadeloupe
Guadeloupe ahead.
TestedGuadeloupe win about 56 times in 100. The other 44: a draw (26) or a Saint Lucia win (18).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:51 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 3–0: Vesta gave this result 18%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals0.8 v 1.6
Most likely score0-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedSaint Lucia: 1 or more56%
Saint Lucia: 2 or more20%
Saint Lucia: 3 or more5%
Guadeloupe: 1 or more80%
Guadeloupe: 2 or more48%
Guadeloupe: 3 or more22%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedSaint Lucia by 3 or more1%
Saint Lucia by 24%
Saint Lucia by 112%
Draw26%
Guadeloupe by 125%
Guadeloupe by 217%
Guadeloupe by 3 or more13%
Result combinations
TestedSaint Lucia win or draw45%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Guadeloupe win or draw82%
Clean sheets
TestedSaint Lucia keep a clean sheet20%
Guadeloupe keep a clean sheet44%
Saint Lucia win without conceding10%
Guadeloupe win without conceding34%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateSaint Lucia score first31%
Guadeloupe score first60%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Saint Lucia goals down, Guadeloupe goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time18%
Level at half-time43%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time39%
Saint Lucia win the second half17%
Second half level38%
Guadeloupe win the second half45%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSaint Lucia ahead at half-time, Saint Lucia win10%
Level at half-time, Saint Lucia win7%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time, Saint Lucia win1%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time, draw4%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time, Guadeloupe win3%
Level at half-time, Guadeloupe win19%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time, Guadeloupe win34%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Saint LuciaGuadeloupe
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works