- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Ukraine v Northern Ireland
66%Ukraine
22%Draw
12%Northern Ireland
Ukraine, clearly.
TestedUkraine win about 66 times in 100. The other 34: a draw (22) or a Northern Ireland win (12).
Forecast by Vesta, published Friday 2 October 2026, 17:45 CEST, before kickoff.
Final score 0–3: Vesta gave this result 12%. Not the favourite: a probability says how often, not which one.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score44%
Expected goals1.9 v 0.7
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals74%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals27%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals14%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedUkraine: 1 or more85%
Ukraine: 2 or more57%
Ukraine: 3 or more31%
Northern Ireland: 1 or more50%
Northern Ireland: 2 or more16%
Northern Ireland: 3 or more3%
Both teams score44%
At least one team does not score56%
Winning margin
TestedUkraine by 3 or more20%
Ukraine by 220%
Ukraine by 125%
Draw22%
Northern Ireland by 19%
Northern Ireland by 23%
Northern Ireland by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedUkraine win or draw88%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Northern Ireland win or draw34%
Clean sheets
TestedUkraine keep a clean sheet50%
Northern Ireland keep a clean sheet15%
Ukraine win without conceding42%
Northern Ireland win without conceding7%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateUkraine score first68%
Northern Ireland score first25%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Ukraine goals down, Northern Ireland goals across. The outlined one happened.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half76%
Ukraine ahead at half-time47%
Level at half-time40%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time13%
Ukraine win the second half53%
Second half level35%
Northern Ireland win the second half13%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateUkraine ahead at half-time, Ukraine win43%
Level at half-time, Ukraine win21%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, Ukraine win3%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, draw4%
Ukraine ahead at half-time, Northern Ireland win1%
Level at half-time, Northern Ireland win5%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, Northern Ireland win7%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
UkraineNorthern Ireland
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works