- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Turks and Caicos Islands v British Virgin Islands
52%Turks and Caicos Islands
27%Draw
21%British Virgin Islands
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead.
TestedTurks and Caicos Islands win about 52 times in 100. The other 48: a draw (27) or a British Virgin Islands win (21).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:44 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedTurks and Caicos Islands: 1 or more78%
Turks and Caicos Islands: 2 or more45%
Turks and Caicos Islands: 3 or more20%
British Virgin Islands: 1 or more59%
British Virgin Islands: 2 or more22%
British Virgin Islands: 3 or more6%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedTurks and Caicos Islands by 3 or more11%
Turks and Caicos Islands by 216%
Turks and Caicos Islands by 125%
Draw28%
British Virgin Islands by 114%
British Virgin Islands by 25%
British Virgin Islands by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedTurks and Caicos Islands win or draw79%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
British Virgin Islands win or draw48%
Clean sheets
TestedTurks and Caicos Islands keep a clean sheet41%
British Virgin Islands keep a clean sheet22%
Turks and Caicos Islands win without conceding32%
British Virgin Islands win without conceding12%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateTurks and Caicos Islands score first57%
British Virgin Islands score first33%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1528%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Turks and Caicos Islands goals down, British Virgin Islands goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | · |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time45%
British Virgin Islands ahead at half-time18%
Turks and Caicos Islands win the second half42%
Second half level39%
British Virgin Islands win the second half19%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateTurks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time, Turks and Caicos Islands win31%
Level at half-time, Turks and Caicos Islands win18%
British Virgin Islands ahead at half-time, Turks and Caicos Islands win2%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
British Virgin Islands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Turks and Caicos Islands ahead at half-time, British Virgin Islands win1%
Level at half-time, British Virgin Islands win8%
British Virgin Islands ahead at half-time, British Virgin Islands win11%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Turks and Caicos IslandsBritish Virgin Islands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works