- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Northern Ireland v Georgia
54%Northern Ireland
27%Draw
19%Georgia
Northern Ireland ahead.
TestedNorthern Ireland win about 54 times in 100. The other 46: a draw (27) or a Georgia win (19).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.6 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals23%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedNorthern Ireland: 1 or more80%
Northern Ireland: 2 or more47%
Northern Ireland: 3 or more22%
Georgia: 1 or more57%
Georgia: 2 or more21%
Georgia: 3 or more5%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedNorthern Ireland by 3 or more13%
Northern Ireland by 217%
Northern Ireland by 125%
Draw27%
Georgia by 113%
Georgia by 25%
Georgia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedNorthern Ireland win or draw81%
Either team wins (no draw)73%
Georgia win or draw46%
Clean sheets
TestedNorthern Ireland keep a clean sheet43%
Georgia keep a clean sheet20%
Northern Ireland win without conceding34%
Georgia win without conceding11%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateNorthern Ireland score first59%
Georgia score first32%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Northern Ireland goals down, Georgia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | · |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half74%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time39%
Level at half-time44%
Georgia ahead at half-time17%
Northern Ireland win the second half44%
Second half level38%
Georgia win the second half18%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateNorthern Ireland ahead at half-time, Northern Ireland win33%
Level at half-time, Northern Ireland win18%
Georgia ahead at half-time, Northern Ireland win2%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Georgia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Northern Ireland ahead at half-time, Georgia win1%
Level at half-time, Georgia win8%
Georgia ahead at half-time, Georgia win10%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Northern IrelandGeorgia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works