- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Romania v Sweden
26%Romania
29%Draw
45%Sweden
Sweden, just.
TestedSweden win about 45 times in 100. The other 55: a draw (29) or a Romania win (26).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.0 v 1.4
Most likely score1-114% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals21%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals20%
4 goals12%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals3%
Goals by team
TestedRomania: 1 or more62%
Romania: 2 or more25%
Romania: 3 or more8%
Sweden: 1 or more75%
Sweden: 2 or more40%
Sweden: 3 or more16%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedRomania by 3 or more3%
Romania by 27%
Romania by 116%
Draw29%
Sweden by 123%
Sweden by 214%
Sweden by 3 or more8%
Result combinations
TestedRomania win or draw55%
Either team wins (no draw)71%
Sweden win or draw74%
Clean sheets
TestedRomania keep a clean sheet25%
Sweden keep a clean sheet38%
Romania win without conceding15%
Sweden win without conceding27%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateRomania score first37%
Sweden score first53%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Romania goals down, Sweden goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | · | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half72%
Romania ahead at half-time21%
Level at half-time45%
Sweden ahead at half-time34%
Romania win the second half24%
Second half level40%
Sweden win the second half36%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateRomania ahead at half-time, Romania win14%
Level at half-time, Romania win10%
Sweden ahead at half-time, Romania win1%
Romania ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw19%
Sweden ahead at half-time, draw6%
Romania ahead at half-time, Sweden win2%
Level at half-time, Sweden win16%
Sweden ahead at half-time, Sweden win27%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
RomaniaSweden
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works