- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Kazakhstan v Faroe Islands
49%Kazakhstan
28%Draw
23%Faroe Islands
Kazakhstan, just.
TestedKazakhstan win about 49 times in 100. The other 51: a draw (28) or a Faroe Islands win (23).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals42%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-113% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals69%
3 or more goals42%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals9%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal21%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedKazakhstan: 1 or more77%
Kazakhstan: 2 or more43%
Kazakhstan: 3 or more18%
Faroe Islands: 1 or more60%
Faroe Islands: 2 or more24%
Faroe Islands: 3 or more7%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedKazakhstan by 3 or more10%
Kazakhstan by 215%
Kazakhstan by 124%
Draw28%
Faroe Islands by 115%
Faroe Islands by 26%
Faroe Islands by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedKazakhstan win or draw77%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Faroe Islands win or draw51%
Clean sheets
TestedKazakhstan keep a clean sheet40%
Faroe Islands keep a clean sheet23%
Kazakhstan win without conceding30%
Faroe Islands win without conceding13%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateKazakhstan score first55%
Faroe Islands score first35%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3020%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Kazakhstan goals down, Faroe Islands goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half65%
A goal in the second half73%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time36%
Level at half-time45%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time20%
Kazakhstan win the second half39%
Second half level39%
Faroe Islands win the second half22%
More goals in the first half29%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateKazakhstan ahead at half-time, Kazakhstan win29%
Level at half-time, Kazakhstan win17%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, Kazakhstan win2%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, draw5%
Kazakhstan ahead at half-time, Faroe Islands win1%
Level at half-time, Faroe Islands win9%
Faroe Islands ahead at half-time, Faroe Islands win13%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
KazakhstanFaroe Islands
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works