- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Martin v Bahamas
86%Saint Martin
11%Draw
3%Bahamas
Saint Martin, clearly.
TestedSaint Martin win about 86 times in 100. The other 14: a draw (11) or a Bahamas win (3).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals65%
Both teams score36%
Expected goals2.9 v 0.5
Most likely score2-014% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals96%
2 or more goals85%
3 or more goals65%
4 or more goals43%
5 or more goals25%
Exactly
0 goals4%
1 goal11%
2 goals20%
3 goals22%
4 goals18%
5 goals12%
6 or more goals12%
Goals by team
TestedSaint Martin: 1 or more94%
Saint Martin: 2 or more78%
Saint Martin: 3 or more55%
Bahamas: 1 or more38%
Bahamas: 2 or more8%
Bahamas: 3 or more1%
Both teams score36%
At least one team does not score64%
Winning margin
TestedSaint Martin by 3 or more45%
Saint Martin by 222%
Saint Martin by 118%
Draw11%
Bahamas by 13%
Bahamas by 21%
Bahamas by 3 or more0%
Result combinations
TestedSaint Martin win or draw97%
Either team wins (no draw)89%
Bahamas win or draw14%
Clean sheets
TestedSaint Martin keep a clean sheet62%
Bahamas keep a clean sheet6%
Saint Martin win without conceding59%
Bahamas win without conceding2%
No goals at all4%
The first goal
Model estimateSaint Martin score first83%
Bahamas score first14%
No goals4%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1538%
Minutes 16-3023%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6010%
Minutes 61-755%
Minutes 76-90+4%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Saint Martin goals down, Bahamas goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
| 1 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 2 | 14.4 | 6.7 | 1.7 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 3 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | · | · |
| 4 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half77%
A goal in the second half84%
Saint Martin ahead at half-time64%
Level at half-time30%
Bahamas ahead at half-time6%
Saint Martin win the second half72%
Second half level23%
Bahamas win the second half6%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half46%
Same goals in both halves23%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSaint Martin ahead at half-time, Saint Martin win62%
Level at half-time, Saint Martin win21%
Bahamas ahead at half-time, Saint Martin win2%
Saint Martin ahead at half-time, draw2%
Level at half-time, draw7%
Bahamas ahead at half-time, draw2%
Saint Martin ahead at half-time, Bahamas win0%
Level at half-time, Bahamas win2%
Bahamas ahead at half-time, Bahamas win2%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Saint MartinBahamas
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works