- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Scotland v Slovenia
51%Scotland
28%Draw
21%Slovenia
Scotland ahead.
TestedScotland win about 51 times in 100. The other 49: a draw (28) or a Slovenia win (21).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals43%
Both teams score47%
Expected goals1.5 v 0.9
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals90%
2 or more goals70%
3 or more goals43%
4 or more goals22%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals10%
1 goal20%
2 goals27%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedScotland: 1 or more78%
Scotland: 2 or more45%
Scotland: 3 or more20%
Slovenia: 1 or more59%
Slovenia: 2 or more22%
Slovenia: 3 or more6%
Both teams score47%
At least one team does not score53%
Winning margin
TestedScotland by 3 or more11%
Scotland by 216%
Scotland by 125%
Draw28%
Slovenia by 114%
Slovenia by 25%
Slovenia by 3 or more2%
Result combinations
TestedScotland win or draw79%
Either team wins (no draw)72%
Slovenia win or draw48%
Clean sheets
TestedScotland keep a clean sheet41%
Slovenia keep a clean sheet22%
Scotland win without conceding32%
Slovenia win without conceding12%
No goals at all10%
The first goal
Model estimateScotland score first57%
Slovenia score first33%
No goals10%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1529%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Scotland goals down, Slovenia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | · |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half66%
A goal in the second half73%
Scotland ahead at half-time37%
Level at half-time44%
Slovenia ahead at half-time19%
Scotland win the second half41%
Second half level39%
Slovenia win the second half19%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half41%
Same goals in both halves29%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateScotland ahead at half-time, Scotland win31%
Level at half-time, Scotland win18%
Slovenia ahead at half-time, Scotland win2%
Scotland ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw18%
Slovenia ahead at half-time, draw5%
Scotland ahead at half-time, Slovenia win1%
Level at half-time, Slovenia win8%
Slovenia ahead at half-time, Slovenia win12%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
ScotlandSlovenia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works