- National teams
- Friendly
South Korea v Uzbekistan
56%South Korea
26%Draw
18%Uzbekistan
South Korea ahead.
TestedSouth Korea win about 56 times in 100. The other 44: a draw (26) or an Uzbekistan win (18).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals44%
Both teams score46%
Expected goals1.6 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals91%
2 or more goals71%
3 or more goals44%
4 or more goals24%
5 or more goals10%
Exactly
0 goals9%
1 goal20%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals13%
5 goals6%
6 or more goals4%
Goals by team
TestedSouth Korea: 1 or more81%
South Korea: 2 or more49%
South Korea: 3 or more23%
Uzbekistan: 1 or more56%
Uzbekistan: 2 or more20%
Uzbekistan: 3 or more5%
Both teams score46%
At least one team does not score54%
Winning margin
TestedSouth Korea by 3 or more13%
South Korea by 217%
South Korea by 125%
Draw26%
Uzbekistan by 112%
Uzbekistan by 24%
Uzbekistan by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedSouth Korea win or draw82%
Either team wins (no draw)74%
Uzbekistan win or draw44%
Clean sheets
TestedSouth Korea keep a clean sheet44%
Uzbekistan keep a clean sheet19%
South Korea win without conceding35%
Uzbekistan win without conceding10%
No goals at all9%
The first goal
Model estimateSouth Korea score first60%
Uzbekistan score first31%
No goals9%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: South Korea goals down, Uzbekistan goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | · |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | · |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half67%
A goal in the second half74%
South Korea ahead at half-time40%
Level at half-time43%
Uzbekistan ahead at half-time17%
South Korea win the second half45%
Second half level37%
Uzbekistan win the second half18%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateSouth Korea ahead at half-time, South Korea win34%
Level at half-time, South Korea win19%
Uzbekistan ahead at half-time, South Korea win2%
South Korea ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw17%
Uzbekistan ahead at half-time, draw5%
South Korea ahead at half-time, Uzbekistan win1%
Level at half-time, Uzbekistan win7%
Uzbekistan ahead at half-time, Uzbekistan win10%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
South KoreaUzbekistan
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works