- National teams
- UEFA Nations League
Republic of Ireland v Israel
61%Republic of Ireland
24%Draw
15%Israel
Republic of Ireland ahead.
TestedRepublic of Ireland win about 61 times in 100. The other 39: a draw (24) or an Israel win (15).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:44 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals47%
Both teams score45%
Expected goals1.8 v 0.8
Most likely score1-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals73%
3 or more goals47%
4 or more goals25%
5 or more goals12%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal19%
2 goals26%
3 goals21%
4 goals14%
5 goals7%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedRepublic of Ireland: 1 or more83%
Republic of Ireland: 2 or more53%
Republic of Ireland: 3 or more27%
Israel: 1 or more53%
Israel: 2 or more17%
Israel: 3 or more4%
Both teams score45%
At least one team does not score55%
Winning margin
TestedRepublic of Ireland by 3 or more17%
Republic of Ireland by 219%
Republic of Ireland by 125%
Draw24%
Israel by 110%
Israel by 23%
Israel by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedRepublic of Ireland win or draw85%
Either team wins (no draw)76%
Israel win or draw39%
Clean sheets
TestedRepublic of Ireland keep a clean sheet47%
Israel keep a clean sheet17%
Republic of Ireland win without conceding38%
Israel win without conceding8%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateRepublic of Ireland score first64%
Israel score first27%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1530%
Minutes 16-3021%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Republic of Ireland goals down, Israel goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | · |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half75%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time44%
Level at half-time41%
Israel ahead at half-time15%
Republic of Ireland win the second half49%
Second half level36%
Israel win the second half15%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half42%
Same goals in both halves28%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateRepublic of Ireland ahead at half-time, Republic of Ireland win39%
Level at half-time, Republic of Ireland win20%
Israel ahead at half-time, Republic of Ireland win3%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, draw4%
Level at half-time, draw15%
Israel ahead at half-time, draw4%
Republic of Ireland ahead at half-time, Israel win1%
Level at half-time, Israel win6%
Israel ahead at half-time, Israel win8%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Republic of IrelandIsrael
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works