- National teams
- CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe v Saint Lucia
67%Guadeloupe
22%Draw
11%Saint Lucia
Guadeloupe, clearly.
TestedGuadeloupe win about 67 times in 100. The other 33: a draw (22) or a Saint Lucia win (11).
Forecast by Vesta, published Saturday 3 October 2026, 18:45 CEST, before kickoff.
3 or more goals49%
Both teams score43%
Expected goals2.0 v 0.7
Most likely score2-013% chance
Goals in the match
Tested1 or more goals92%
2 or more goals75%
3 or more goals49%
4 or more goals28%
5 or more goals13%
Exactly
0 goals8%
1 goal18%
2 goals25%
3 goals22%
4 goals15%
5 goals8%
6 or more goals5%
Goals by team
TestedGuadeloupe: 1 or more86%
Guadeloupe: 2 or more58%
Guadeloupe: 3 or more31%
Saint Lucia: 1 or more50%
Saint Lucia: 2 or more15%
Saint Lucia: 3 or more3%
Both teams score43%
At least one team does not score57%
Winning margin
TestedGuadeloupe by 3 or more21%
Guadeloupe by 221%
Guadeloupe by 125%
Draw22%
Saint Lucia by 18%
Saint Lucia by 22%
Saint Lucia by 3 or more1%
Result combinations
TestedGuadeloupe win or draw88%
Either team wins (no draw)78%
Saint Lucia win or draw33%
Clean sheets
TestedGuadeloupe keep a clean sheet50%
Saint Lucia keep a clean sheet14%
Guadeloupe win without conceding43%
Saint Lucia win without conceding6%
No goals at all8%
The first goal
Model estimateGuadeloupe score first68%
Saint Lucia score first24%
No goals8%
When it comes
Minutes 1-1531%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+16%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-757%
Minutes 76-90+6%
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Guadeloupe goals down, Saint Lucia goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | · |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | · |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | · | · |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | · | · |
Halves
Model estimateA goal in the first half69%
A goal in the second half77%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time48%
Level at half-time39%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time13%
Guadeloupe win the second half54%
Second half level34%
Saint Lucia win the second half12%
More goals in the first half30%
More goals in the second half43%
Same goals in both halves27%
Half-time and full-time
Model estimateGuadeloupe ahead at half-time, Guadeloupe win44%
Level at half-time, Guadeloupe win21%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time, Guadeloupe win2%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time, draw3%
Level at half-time, draw14%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time, draw4%
Guadeloupe ahead at half-time, Saint Lucia win1%
Level at half-time, Saint Lucia win5%
Saint Lucia ahead at half-time, Saint Lucia win6%
When the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
GuadeloupeSaint Lucia
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works