Ligue 1

Every remaining match simulated 10,000 times with Vesta’s strengths of today, added to the table as it stands. Sorted by average finishing position.

Ligue 1 2026-27: projected final table

#	Team	Now	Final ptsPts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3Bot. 3	Every position
1	Paris Saint Germain	8	70	62–78	78%	99%	–
2	Monaco	13	58	50–67	8%	66%	<1%
3	Lyon	11	57	48–65	6%	60%	<1%
4	Lille	10	54	45–63	3%	44%	<1%
5	Paris FC	11	54	45–62	3%	40%	<1%
6	Lens	4	53	44–62	2%	37%	<1%
7	Rennes	10	50	41–58	<1%	19%	2%
8	Strasbourg	7	47	38–55	<1%	10%	4%
9	Toulouse	5	46	37–55	<1%	8%	6%
10	Marseille	3	45	36–54	<1%	7%	8%
11	Brest	5	43	35–52	<1%	5%	10%
12	Lorient	5	42	34–51	<1%	3%	13%
13	Le Mans	6	41	32–49	<1%	2%	19%
14	Auxerre	6	37	29–46	–	<1%	37%
15	Angers	7	36	28–45	–	<1%	41%
16	Nice	5	36	28–45	–	<1%	44%
17	Troyes	4	35	26–43	–	<1%	55%
18	Le Havre	2	33	25–42	–	<1%	60%

Range: 8 in 10 simulated seasons end between these points. Strengths stay as they are today: injuries, transfers and changes of coach are not in it, nor are points deductions. Computed Sat 3 Oct 2026, on data up to Sun 20 Sep 2026.

#	Team	W	D	L	Goals for	Range	Against	Range	Diff.
1	Paris Saint Germain	21	8	5	71	61–81	35	28–42	+36
2	Monaco	16	9	9	53	45–61	40	32–47	+13
3	Lyon	16	10	9	57	48–65	40	32–47	+17
4	Lille	15	9	10	51	43–59	40	33–48	+11
5	Paris FC	15	10	9	50	42–58	41	33–48	+10
6	Lens	15	8	11	61	52–70	47	40–55	+14
7	Rennes	14	9	12	51	43–59	52	44–60	-1
8	Strasbourg	13	9	13	53	45–61	53	45–61	+0
9	Toulouse	12	10	12	50	42–58	50	43–59	-1
10	Marseille	12	7	14	55	46–63	53	45–61	+2
11	Brest	11	10	13	48	40–56	51	43–59	-3
12	Lorient	11	10	13	43	35–50	47	39–55	-4
13	Le Mans	10	11	13	49	41–57	56	48–65	-8
14	Auxerre	10	8	16	42	35–49	59	51–68	-17
15	Angers	9	9	16	39	32–46	53	44–61	-14
16	Nice	9	10	16	39	32–46	55	46–64	-16
17	Troyes	9	8	17	41	34–49	63	54–72	-22
18	Le Havre	8	10	16	39	32–47	55	47–64	-16

Averages over the simulated seasons (the matches played included), so a row may not add up to the matches of a season after rounding.

Goals at the end of the season: the goals of the simulated rest of the season shared among each team's players by their recent part in its attack.

Assists are shared the same way, by each player's recent part in creating chances.

The chances that moved most, in percentage points: the projection now against the one made with the data of a week of matches ago.

• +28Lyon: top 4 32% → 60%
• +20Troyes: bottom 3 34% → 55%
• −15Rennes: top 4 34% → 19%
• −14Auxerre: bottom 3 50% → 37%
• +14Paris Saint Germain: title 64% → 78%
• −12Nice: bottom 3 57% → 44%

Expected points: what the chances of every match (expected goals) were worth, on average. A team above them took more points than its chances, from finishing, goalkeeping or luck.

Team	Points	Expected	Difference
Monaco	13	6.9	+6.1
Lille	10	6.3	+3.7
Rennes	10	7.4	+2.6
Strasbourg	7	4.8	+2.2
Lyon	11	8.8	+2.2
Nice	5	4.5	+0.5
Le Mans	6	5.5	+0.5
Paris FC	11	10.6	+0.4
Auxerre	6	5.9	+0.1
Angers	7	7.3	−0.3
Troyes	4	4.3	−0.3
Paris Saint Germain	8	9.4	−1.4
Lorient	5	6.5	−1.5
Marseille	3	5.6	−2.6
Le Havre	2	4.9	−2.9
Toulouse	5	8.7	−3.7
Brest	5	9.2	−4.2
Lens	4	8.6	−4.6