Lab

Which matches change the races most?

Le Havre v Auxerre (Sun 18 Oct) moves a race more than any other coming match: Auxerre's bottom three chance is 61 in 100 if Le Havre win, 52 after a draw and 39 if Auxerre win.

League data to · Vesta · each result against 10,000 runs of the season

FreePro adds every coming match, not only the top five

107 coming matches, the biggest swing firstBiggest swings 107 matches

each side's chance if the home side wins · draws · the away side wins
CSV
Le HavrevAuxerreSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 49 · 28 · 23
Side and raceHAC winDrawAUX winNow
Auxerrebottom three61523953
Le Havrebottom three34465442
OsasunavRacing SantanderSun 18 Oct, 14:00 CESTSun 14:00
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceOSA winDrawRAC winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three43372436
Osasunabottom three20273526
AuxerrevLe MansSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 38 · 28 · 34
Side and raceAUX winDrawLMN winNow
Le Mansbottom three49433141
Auxerrebottom three45536353
Paris FCvRennesSun 18 Oct, 17:15 CESTSun 17:15
Vesta 39 · 28 · 33
Side and racePFC winDrawREN winNow
Rennestop four36445444
Paris FCtop four28221622
Rennestitle3475
Paris FCbottom three<1111
MonacovLilleSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 42 · 29 · 28
Side and raceASM winDrawLIL winNow
Lilletop four32385139
Monacotop four68585260
Monacotitle139710
Lilletitle3364
ToulousevTroyesSat 24 Oct, 17:15 CESTSat 17:15
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceTFC winDrawTRO winNow
Troyesbottom three62554457
Toulousetop four20141117
Toulousebottom three1221
ParmavUdineseWed 28 Oct, 18:30 CETWed 18:30
Vesta 33 · 31 · 37
Side and racePAR winDrawUDI winNow
Parmabottom three49616759
Udinesebottom three34251825
MarseillevLe HavreSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 52 · 26 · 22
Side and raceMAR winDrawHAC winNow
Le Havrebottom three47422942
Marseilletop four1611813
Marseillebottom three1342
LillevLensFri 30 Oct, 21:05 CETFri 21:05
Vesta 36 · 29 · 36
Side and raceLIL winDrawRCL winNow
Lenstop four27354435
Lilletop four49373239
Lilletitle6324
Lenstitle2353
UdinesevLecceSun 18 Oct, 12:30 CESTSun 12:30
Vesta 54 · 27 · 19
Side and raceUDI winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three77695972
Udinesebottom three20293625
RasenBallsport LeipzigvElversbergSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 68 · 20 · 13
Side and raceRBL winDrawSVE winNow
RasenBallsport Leipzigtop four66564861
Elversbergbottom three139411
Elversbergtop four1221
PaderbornvHamburger SVSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 28 · 24
Side and racePAD winDrawHSV winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three53433546
Paderbornbottom three22313728
LyonvNiceSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 61 · 24 · 15
Side and raceLYO winDrawNCE winNow
Lyontop four62514457
Nicebottom three29261726
Lyontitle10648
GetafevRayo VallecanoMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 32 · 33 · 35
Side and raceGET winDrawRAY winNow
Getafebottom three29394638
Rayo Vallecanobottom three10646
Rayo Vallecanotop four1121
AngersvMarseilleSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 24 · 27 · 49
Side and raceANG winDrawMAR winNow
Angersbottom three42535953
Marseilletop four9101713
Marseillebottom three4312
AngersvLorientSun 25 Oct, 17:15 CETSun 17:15
Vesta 28 · 30 · 41
Side and raceANG winDrawLOR winNow
Angersbottom three43536053
Lorientbottom three10747
Lorienttop four3475
Bayer LeverkusenvFreiburgSun 18 Oct, 15:30 CESTSun 15:30
Vesta 57 · 23 · 20
Side and raceB04 winDrawSCF winNow
Freiburgtop four28354633
Bayer Leverkusentop four84766879
Bayer Leverkusentitle2112
JuventusvLazioSun 18 Oct, 20:45 CESTSun 20:45
Vesta 52 · 28 · 21
Side and raceJUV winDrawLAZ winNow
Juventustop four52403445
Laziotop four15182718
Juventustitle2112
NapolivRomaSat 24 Oct, 18:00 CESTSat 18:00
Vesta 33 · 29 · 38
Side and raceNAP winDrawROM winNow
Napolitop four58474148
Romatitle16212521
Romatop four88929592
Napolititle3212
LaziovParmaSat 24 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 57 · 27 · 16
Side and raceLAZ winDrawPAR winNow
Parmabottom three63594659
Laziotop four21161218
VfB StuttgartvBorussia M.GladbachFri 23 Oct, 20:30 CESTFri 20:30
Vesta 69 · 18 · 13
Side and raceVFB winDrawBMG winNow
Borussia M.Gladbachbottom three71655468
VfB Stuttgarttop four32251929
GenoavVeneziaSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceGEN winDrawVEN winNow
Veneziabottom three76705970
Genoabottom three17243123
TorinovComoTue 27 Oct, 20:45 CETTue 20:45
Vesta 22 · 27 · 51
Side and raceTOR winDrawCOM winNow
Comotop four42485952
Torinobottom three59119
Comotitle1243
MalagavReal SociedadSun 18 Oct, 18:30 CESTSun 18:30
Vesta 35 · 29 · 37
Side and raceMLG winDrawRSO winNow
Malagabottom three57677466
Real Sociedadbottom three6524
Real Sociedadtop four1232
Paris Saint GermainvLyonSun 25 Oct, 20:45 CETSun 20:45
Vesta 55 · 25 · 20
Side and racePSG winDrawLYO winNow
Paris Saint Germaintitle73635667
Lyontop four52586857
Lyontitle59148
Paris Saint Germaintop four97959396
ParmavTorinoMon 19 Oct, 20:45 CESTMon 20:45
Vesta 29 · 31 · 39
Side and racePAR winDrawTOR winNow
Parmabottom three49616659
Torinobottom three131059
TottenhamvCoventryMon 19 Oct, 21:00 CESTMon 21:00
Vesta 45 · 28 · 27
Side and raceTOT winDrawCOV winNow
Tottenhambottom three40525748
Coventrybottom three50413343
Racing SantandervEspanyolSat 24 Oct, 16:15 CESTSat 16:15
Vesta 37 · 27 · 35
Side and raceRAC winDrawESP winNow
Racing Santanderbottom three28374536
Espanyolbottom three21161016
Crystal PalacevNewcastle UnitedSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 35 · 27 · 38
Side and raceCRY winDrawNEW winNow
Crystal Palacebottom three26374235
Newcastle Unitedbottom three1612712
Newcastle Unitedtop four2353
ValenciavVillarrealSat 24 Oct, 18:30 CESTSat 18:30
Vesta 24 · 26 · 49
Side and raceVAL winDrawVIL winNow
Valenciabottom three23333934
Villarrealtop four23263630
Hamburger SVvVfB StuttgartSat 17 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 21 · 23 · 55
Side and raceHSV winDrawVFB winNow
Hamburger SVbottom three35435146
VfB Stuttgarttop four21253429
CoventryvFulhamSat 24 Oct, 16:00 CESTSat 16:00
Vesta 30 · 29 · 41
Side and raceCOV winDrawFUL winNow
Coventrybottom three33434943
Fulhambottom three31271925
LiverpoolvBrightonSun 25 Oct, 15:00 CETSun 15:00
Vesta 40 · 27 · 33
Side and raceLIV winDrawBHA winNow
Brightontop four60677668
Liverpooltop four44353037
Brightontitle2233
FrosinonevLecceThu 29 Oct, 18:30 CETThu 18:30
Vesta 61 · 23 · 17
Side and raceFRO winDrawLEC winNow
Leccebottom three75715972
Frosinonetop four3223
Frosinonebottom three<1121
AugsburgvUnion BerlinSat 24 Oct, 15:30 CESTSat 15:30
Vesta 48 · 26 · 26
Side and raceFCA winDrawFCU winNow
Union Berlinbottom three56494050
Augsburgbottom three10162014
LillevBrestSat 17 Oct, 20:45 CESTSat 20:45
Vesta 46 · 28 · 26
Side and raceLIL winDrawBRS winNow
Lilletop four46363139
Bresttop four56106
Brestbottom three7535
Lilletitle5324
Le HavrevParis Saint GermainFri 30 Oct, 19:00 CETFri 19:00
Vesta 17 · 23 · 60
Side and raceHAC winDrawPSG winNow
Le Havrebottom three30414542
Paris Saint Germaintitle58627167
Paris Saint Germaintop four95959796
LeccevJuventusSun 25 Oct, 18:00 CETSun 18:00
Vesta 13 · 23 · 64
Side and raceLEC winDrawJUV winNow
Leccebottom three60697572
Juventustop four35394945
BrightonvCrystal PalaceSun 18 Oct, 15:00 CESTSun 15:00
Vesta 62 · 22 · 16
Side and raceBHA winDrawCRY winNow
Crystal Palacebottom three39322435
Brightontop four72625968
Brightontitle3113
Athletic ClubvGetafeSun 25 Oct, 14:00 CETSun 14:00
Vesta 59 · 28 · 13
Side and raceATH winDrawGET winNow
Getafebottom three42362738
Athletic Clubtop four21141218
Showing 40 of 107Show 20 more

For each coming league match Vesta's 10,000 runs of the season are split by the result of that match: the share of runs where a side finishes first, in the top four or in the bottom three, among the runs with a home win, a draw or an away win. "Now" weighs the three by how often each result comes up. Green = the side's best result, red = its worst. Chances in 100.

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