Rennes v Auxerre
Rennes ahead.
TestedRennes win about 55 times in 100. The other 45: a draw (23) or an Auxerre win (22).
Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.
Likely line-ups
Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoffPlayers to watch
Model estimateEach player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).
- Esteban Lepaul32%to score
- Adrien Thomasson12%to score
- Ludovic Blas12%to score
- Mousa Al Tamari11%to score
- Cameron Archer21%to score
- Danny Namaso16%to score
- Remy Labeau Lascary16%to score
- Romain Faivre6%to score
Numbers to expect
Forecast by VestaWhat each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.
What's at stake
Model estimateThe chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.
| Team and chance | Now | Rennes win | Draw | Auxerre win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | ||||
| Top 4 | 19% | 22% | 15% | 14% |
| Bottom 3 | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Auxerre | ||||
| Top 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Bottom 3 | 37% | 41% | 35% | 27% |
Goals in the match
TestedExactly
Goals by team
TestedWinning margin
TestedResult combinations
TestedClean sheets
TestedThe first goal
Model estimateWhen it comes
Every score
TestedChance of each score in percent: Rennes goals down, Auxerre goals across.
| Home goals down, away goals across | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | · |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | · |
Halves
TestedHalf-time and full-time
TestedWhen the goals come
Model estimateExpected goals in each 15 minutes.
Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works
Every player's chances
Model estimateEveryone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Lepaul | 32% | 8% | 2.1 |
| Adrien Thomasson | 12% | 15% | 1.0 |
| Ludovic Blas | 12% | 12% | 1.2 |
| Mousa Al Tamari | 11% | 9% | 1.3 |
| Issa Soumaré bench | 11% | 4% | 0.7 |
| Charlie Cresswell | 10% | 4% | 1.0 |
| Ronaldo bench | 8% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Timur Suleymanov bench | 7% | 2% | 0.5 |
| Mahdi Camara | 7% | 5% | 0.8 |
| Valentin Rongier | 5% | 10% | 0.7 |
| Przemyslaw Frankowski | 5% | 10% | 0.6 |
| Eliezer Mayenda bench | 4% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Maksim Mukhin bench | 4% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal bench | 4% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Anthony Rouault | 4% | <1% | 0.2 |
| Arnaud Nordin bench | 4% | 3% | 0.5 |
| Boulaye Dia bench | 4% | 2% | 0.2 |
| Sebastian Szymanski bench | 4% | 8% | 0.5 |
| Alexey Mironov bench | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Ivan Komarov bench | 3% | 3% | 0.4 |
| Quentin Merlin | 3% | 7% | 0.5 |
| Konstantin Kuchaev bench | 3% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Olakunle Olusegun bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Mahamadou Nagida bench | 1% | 1% | 0.3 |
| Oumar Sako bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Viktor Melekhin bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Ygor Nogueira bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Andrey Langovich bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Bryan Reynolds bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Nicolas Lemaitre bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Rustam Yatimov bench | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Brice Samba | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |
| Player | Score | Assist | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Archer | 21% | 5% | 1.1 |
| Danny Namaso | 16% | 10% | 1.5 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary | 16% | 6% | 1.1 |
| Romain Faivre | 6% | 7% | 0.7 |
| Aristide Zossou bench | 6% | 2% | 0.4 |
| Kévin Danois | 6% | 9% | 0.7 |
| Arthur Piedfort | 6% | 6% | 0.6 |
| Lamine Sy | 5% | 5% | 0.6 |
| Naouirou Ahamada | 4% | 5% | 0.5 |
| Sinaly Diomande bench | 3% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Christ Makosso | 2% | 7% | 0.2 |
| Clément Akpa | 2% | 2% | 0.3 |
| Axel Tuanzebe bench | 2% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Fredrik Oppegård bench | 1% | 1% | 0.2 |
| Elikya Legros bench | 1% | 1% | 0.1 |
| Rayan Mandengue bench | 1% | 2% | 0.1 |
| Lamfia Dioubaté bench | <1% | <1% | 0.1 |
| Mamadou Diop | <1% | <1% | 0.0 |



