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  2. Ligue 1

Rennes v Auxerre

55%Rennes
23%Draw
22%Auxerre

Rennes ahead.

Tested

Rennes win about 55 times in 100. The other 45: a draw (23) or an Auxerre win (22).

Forecast by Vesta, published Wednesday 30 September 2026, 13:24 CEST, before kickoff.

3 or more goals57%
Both teams score57%
Expected goals1.9 v 1.1
Most likely score1-111% chance

Likely line-ups

Our estimate from recent matches; the confirmed ones replace it about an hour before kickoff
Rennes4-4-23-3-4Auxerre

Players to watch

Model estimate

Each player's chance to score and to assist, from Vesta's expected goals for his team, his expected goals and goals per 90 minutes, and the minutes he is likely to play (the likely line-ups above).

Numbers to expect

Forecast by Vesta

What each side should make in this match, forecast by Vesta from both teams' recent numbers and the match forecast.

Shots16.310.4
Shots on target5.83.6
Corners6.24.1
Fouls12.613.5
Yellow cards1.82.1

What's at stake

Model estimate

The chance of each team finishing first, in the top four or in the bottom three: today, and in the simulated seasons where this match ends in each result.

What Rennes v Auxerre changes for both teams
Team and chanceNowRennes winDrawAuxerre win
Rennes
Top 419%22%15%14%
Bottom 32%1%3%3%
Auxerre
Top 4<1%<1%<1%1%
Bottom 337%41%35%27%

Goals in the match

Tested
1 or more goals95%
2 or more goals80%
3 or more goals57%
4 or more goals35%
5 or more goals18%

Exactly

0 goals5%
1 goal15%
2 goals23%
3 goals22%
4 goals17%
5 goals10%
6 or more goals8%

Goals by team

Tested
Rennes: 1 or more85%
Rennes: 2 or more56%
Rennes: 3 or more29%
Auxerre: 1 or more67%
Auxerre: 2 or more30%
Auxerre: 3 or more10%
Both teams score57%
At least one team does not score43%

Winning margin

Tested
Rennes by 3 or more15%
Rennes by 217%
Rennes by 123%
Draw23%
Auxerre by 114%
Auxerre by 26%
Auxerre by 3 or more2%

Result combinations

Tested
Rennes win or draw78%
Either team wins (no draw)77%
Auxerre win or draw45%

Clean sheets

Tested
Rennes keep a clean sheet33%
Auxerre keep a clean sheet15%
Rennes win without conceding28%
Auxerre win without conceding10%
No goals at all5%

The first goal

Model estimate
Rennes score first60%
Auxerre score first35%
No goals5%

When it comes

Minutes 1-1535%
Minutes 16-3022%
Minutes 31-45+17%
Minutes 46-6011%
Minutes 61-756%
Minutes 76-90+5%

Every score

Tested

Chance of each score in percent: Rennes goals down, Auxerre goals across.

Chance of each exact score
Home goals down, away goals across012345
05.15.53.11.10.30.1
19.410.65.82.10.60.1
28.99.95.52.00.60.1
35.66.23.41.30.40.1
42.62.91.60.60.2·
51.01.10.60.20.1·

Halves

Tested
A goal in the first half74%
A goal in the second half81%
Rennes ahead at half-time42%
Level at half-time39%
Auxerre ahead at half-time19%
Rennes win the second half45%
Second half level33%
Auxerre win the second half22%
More goals in the first half31%
More goals in the second half45%
Same goals in both halves24%

Half-time and full-time

Tested
Rennes ahead at half-time, Rennes win35%
Level at half-time, Rennes win17%
Auxerre ahead at half-time, Rennes win3%
Rennes ahead at half-time, draw5%
Level at half-time, draw13%
Auxerre ahead at half-time, draw5%
Rennes ahead at half-time, Auxerre win1%
Level at half-time, Auxerre win9%
Auxerre ahead at half-time, Auxerre win12%

When the goals come

Model estimate

Expected goals in each 15 minutes.

1-15'
16-30'
31-45+'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
RennesAuxerre

Tested: checked on past matches at this level of detail. Tested in aggregate: checked on a coarser measure. Model estimate: not checked on real data yet. How Vesta works

Every player's chances

Model estimate

Everyone likely to play, by chance to score. Minutes: what we expect him to play; shots: how many he should take.

Rennes
Rennes: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Esteban Lepaul5732%6%8%38%2.1
Adrien Thomasson5612%<1%15%26%1.0
Ludovic Blas4012%<1%12%23%1.2
Mousa Al Tamari4311%<1%9%19%1.3
Issa Soumaré bench2511%<1%4%14%0.7
Charlie Cresswell7210%<1%4%13%1.0
Ronaldo bench188%<1%2%10%0.5
Timur Suleymanov bench187%<1%2%10%0.5
Mahdi Camara607%<1%5%12%0.8
Valentin Rongier695%<1%10%15%0.7
Przemyslaw Frankowski655%<1%10%14%0.6
Eliezer Mayenda bench184%<1%2%6%0.4
Maksim Mukhin bench94%<1%1%5%0.3
Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal bench364%<1%2%6%0.3
Anthony Rouault364%<1%<1%5%0.2
Arnaud Nordin bench184%<1%3%7%0.5
Boulaye Dia bench154%<1%2%6%0.2
Sebastian Szymanski bench314%<1%8%11%0.5
Alexey Mironov bench183%<1%2%5%0.3
Ivan Komarov bench153%<1%3%6%0.4
Quentin Merlin453%<1%7%10%0.5
Konstantin Kuchaev bench153%<1%2%5%0.3
Olakunle Olusegun bench91%<1%1%3%0.1
Mahamadou Nagida bench271%<1%1%3%0.3
Oumar Sako bench181%<1%1%2%0.1
Viktor Melekhin bench181%<1%1%2%0.1
Ygor Nogueira bench181%<1%1%2%0.1
Andrey Langovich bench181%<1%1%2%0.1
Bryan Reynolds bench7<1%<1%<1%<1%0.1
Nicolas Lemaitre bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Rustam Yatimov bench18<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Brice Samba54<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0
Auxerre
Auxerre: each player's chances
PlayerMinScore2+AssistGoal or assistShots
Cameron Archer5321%2%5%25%1.1
Danny Namaso8316%1%10%24%1.5
Remy Labeau Lascary5216%1%6%21%1.1
Romain Faivre426%<1%7%13%0.7
Aristide Zossou bench226%<1%2%8%0.4
Kévin Danois906%<1%9%14%0.7
Arthur Piedfort796%<1%6%11%0.6
Lamine Sy905%<1%5%10%0.6
Naouirou Ahamada584%<1%5%8%0.5
Sinaly Diomande bench363%<1%1%4%0.1
Christ Makosso612%<1%7%9%0.2
Clément Akpa902%<1%2%3%0.3
Axel Tuanzebe bench362%<1%<1%2%0.1
Fredrik Oppegård bench401%<1%1%3%0.2
Elikya Legros bench301%<1%1%3%0.1
Rayan Mandengue bench91%<1%2%3%0.1
Lamfia Dioubaté bench6<1%<1%<1%1%0.1
Mamadou Diop90<1%<1%<1%<1%0.0