Serie A

Every remaining match simulated 10,000 times with Vesta’s strengths of today, added to the table as it stands. Sorted by average finishing position.

Serie A 2026-27: projected final table

#	Team	Now	Final ptsPts	Range	Title	Top 4	Bottom 3Bot. 3	Every position
1	Inter	13	82	73–91	65%	99%	–
2	Roma	13	77	68–85	25%	93%	–
3	Juventus	10	70	61–79	5%	67%	–
4	Como	10	68	59–77	3%	58%	–
5	AC Milan	11	65	55–74	1%	37%	<1%
6	Napoli	7	62	53–72	<1%	26%	<1%
7	Lazio	13	59	50–69	<1%	14%	<1%
8	Atalanta	6	53	43–62	<1%	3%	1%
9	Frosinone	10	51	42–61	<1%	2%	1%
10	Cagliari	12	49	40–58	–	<1%	3%
11	Sassuolo	7	49	39–58	<1%	<1%	4%
12	Bologna	2	46	37–55	–	<1%	7%
13	Fiorentina	4	44	35–53	–	<1%	12%
14	Monza	4	43	34–52	–	<1%	14%
15	Torino	4	43	34–52	–	<1%	15%
16	Udinese	4	43	34–52	–	<1%	16%
17	Genoa	1	38	29–47	–	<1%	38%
18	Parma	4	36	27–44	–	<1%	52%
19	Lecce	6	34	25–42	–	–	66%
20	Venezia	0	33	24–42	–	–	69%

Range: 8 in 10 simulated seasons end between these points. Strengths stay as they are today: injuries, transfers and changes of coach are not in it, nor are points deductions. Computed Sat 3 Oct 2026, on data up to Sun 20 Sep 2026.

#	Team	W	D	L	Goals for	Range	Against	Range	Diff.
1	Inter	25	8	5	89	79–100	43	36–50	+46
2	Roma	23	9	6	76	67–86	37	30–44	+39
3	Juventus	20	10	8	61	52–70	36	29–43	+25
4	Como	20	9	9	65	56–74	43	36–50	+22
5	AC Milan	18	11	9	61	52–70	43	35–51	+18
6	Napoli	17	10	10	57	48–66	41	34–48	+16
7	Lazio	16	10	11	52	44–60	45	37–53	+7
8	Atalanta	15	9	14	52	43–60	51	43–60	+0
9	Frosinone	14	10	14	53	45–61	54	46–63	-1
10	Cagliari	13	9	16	42	34–49	50	42–59	-9
11	Sassuolo	13	10	15	53	45–61	59	50–67	-6
12	Bologna	11	11	15	44	36–52	49	41–57	-5
13	Fiorentina	11	10	17	47	39–55	61	52–70	-14
14	Monza	11	10	17	50	42–58	62	54–71	-13
15	Torino	11	10	17	44	37–52	56	48–65	-12
16	Udinese	11	10	17	48	40–56	60	52–69	-12
17	Genoa	9	10	19	39	32–47	58	50–67	-19
18	Parma	9	10	19	37	30–44	59	51–68	-23
19	Lecce	8	8	21	37	30–44	69	60–79	-32
20	Venezia	8	8	21	43	35–51	72	63–81	-29

Averages over the simulated seasons (the matches played included), so a row may not add up to the matches of a season after rounding.

Goals at the end of the season: the goals of the simulated rest of the season shared among each team's players by their recent part in its attack.

Assists are shared the same way, by each player's recent part in creating chances.

The chances that moved most, in percentage points: the projection now against the one made with the data of a week of matches ago.

• −18Como: top 4 75% → 58%
• +12Juventus: top 4 55% → 67%
• +11Lecce: bottom 3 55% → 66%
• −11Parma: bottom 3 63% → 52%
• +9AC Milan: top 4 29% → 37%
• +6Udinese: bottom 3 11% → 16%

Expected points: what the chances of every match (expected goals) were worth, on average. A team above them took more points than its chances, from finishing, goalkeeping or luck.

Team	Points	Expected	Difference
Cagliari	12	5.8	+6.2
Lazio	13	7.9	+5.1
Frosinone	10	5.5	+4.5
Lecce	6	2.8	+3.2
Atalanta	6	3.1	+2.9
Inter	13	10.7	+2.3
AC Milan	11	8.8	+2.2
Como	10	8.9	+1.1
Roma	13	11.9	+1.1
Parma	4	3.7	+0.3
Sassuolo	7	7.6	−0.6
Torino	4	5.2	−1.2
Udinese	4	5.3	−1.3
Juventus	10	11.6	−1.6
Napoli	7	8.7	−1.7
Fiorentina	4	6.4	−2.4
Genoa	1	4.8	−3.8
Monza	4	8.5	−4.5
Venezia	0	5.6	−5.6
Bologna	2	7.7	−5.7