All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 34 league matches of Greuther Fuerth since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 58. Draws: said 23, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches34each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 58
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.24Vesta expected 3.03
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 37 | 25.1 | 21.6 | −3.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Greuther Fuerth 1-0 Union Berlin
Sun 12 Dec 2021 · Bundesliga19 in 100- Greuther Fuerth 2-1 Mainz 05
Sat 22 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga20 in 100 
Hoffenheim 0-0 Greuther FuerthSun 17 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga20 in 100- Union Berlin 1-1 Greuther FuerthFri 29 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga21 in 100
Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 Greuther FuerthSat 2 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga23 in 100- Greuther Fuerth 0-0 Freiburg
Sat 19 Mar 2022 · Bundesliga24 in 100 - Greuther Fuerth 1-1 FC Cologne
Sat 26 Feb 2022 · Bundesliga26 in 100 - Greuther Fuerth 0-0 VfB Stuttgart
Sat 8 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga27 in 100 - Greuther Fuerth 0-0 Augsburg
Sat 18 Dec 2021 · Bundesliga28 in 100 - Greuther Fuerth 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Sat 21 Aug 2021 · Bundesliga28 in 100 - Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Greuther FuerthSun 16 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga28 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Sat 12 Feb 2022 · Bundesliga30 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Union Berlin 1-1 Greuther FuerthFri 29 Apr 2022 · home win said69 in 100
- Hoffenheim 0-0 Greuther FuerthSun 17 Apr 2022 · home win said69 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 Greuther FuerthSat 2 Apr 2022 · home win said62 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 0-0 FreiburgSat 19 Mar 2022 · away win said58 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 1-0 Union BerlinSun 12 Dec 2021 · away win said57 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 2-1 Mainz 05Sat 22 Jan 2022 · away win said54 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 1-1 FC CologneSat 26 Feb 2022 · away win said49 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Greuther FuerthSun 16 Jan 2022 · home win said49 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 0-0 VfB StuttgartSat 8 Jan 2022 · away win said45 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 0-1 Bochum
Sat 16 Oct 2021 · home win said42 in 100 - Greuther Fuerth 2-1 Hertha BerlinSat 12 Feb 2022 · away win said41 in 100
- Greuther Fuerth 0-0 AugsburgSat 18 Dec 2021 · away win said40 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bochum | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Wolfsburg | 2 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 2 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
  Augsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
  FC Cologne | 2 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
  Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
  Freiburg | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Greuther Fuerth | 34 | 18 | 27.5 | −9.5 |
  Union Berlin | 2 | 1 | 4.2 | −3.2 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 2 | 3.0 | −1.0 |
  Mainz 05 | 2 | 3 | 3.5 | −0.5 |
  Hoffenheim | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
  Hertha Berlin | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
| Freiburg | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| FC Cologne | 2 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| Augsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Greuther Fuerth's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 58 | 62 | 23 | 26 | 3.03 | 3.24 | 0.153 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.