All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Eintracht Frankfurt since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 30 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws30 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match3.24Vesta expected 2.99
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 106 | 16.1 | 17.9 | +1.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 412 | 25.4 | 29.1 | +3.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 145 | 35.1 | 31.7 | −3.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 119 | 44.8 | 40.3 | −4.5 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 82 | 54.6 | 48.8 | −5.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 40 | 64.4 | 55.0 | −9.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sun 3 Oct 2021 · Bundesliga7 in 100
Schalke 04 4-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 15 May 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-1 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 13 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga12 in 100- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Augsburg
Sun 14 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga12 in 100 - Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 Bayern MunichSat 9 Dec 2023 · Bundesliga13 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 28 Jan 2023 · Bundesliga16 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Mainz 05
Sat 6 Jun 2020 · Bundesliga17 in 100 - Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Union Berlin
Sun 9 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga17 in 100 - Eintracht Frankfurt 2-4 FC Cologne
Wed 18 Dec 2019 · Bundesliga17 in 100 
VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSun 10 Nov 2024 · Bundesliga17 in 100- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Mainz 05Sun 12 May 2019 · Bundesliga18 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4 Union BerlinSun 21 Sep 2025 · Bundesliga18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 1-2 Eintracht FrankfurtSun 3 Oct 2021 · home win said80 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 28 Jan 2023 · home win said73 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Sat 19 Sep 2020 · home win said71 in 100 - Schalke 04 4-3 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 15 May 2021 · away win said70 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 Bayern MunichSat 9 Dec 2023 · away win said69 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 AugsburgSun 14 Apr 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-1 Eintracht FrankfurtSat 13 Jan 2024 · home win said68 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 Eintracht FrankfurtSun 20 Mar 2022 · home win said66 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Bochum
Fri 31 Mar 2023 · home win said65 in 100 - Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 AugsburgSat 29 Apr 2023 · home win said64 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-0 AugsburgSat 21 Aug 2021 · home win said63 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Mainz 05Sat 6 Jun 2020 · home win said63 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 311 | 456 | 446.5 | +9.5 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 39 | 30.3 | +8.7 |
  Augsburg | 19 | 24 | 19.0 | +5.0 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 27 | 22.2 | +4.8 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 36 | 32.2 | +3.8 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 18 | 15.9 | +2.1 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
  Bochum | 8 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 |
  Union Berlin | 15 | 20 | 19.1 | +0.9 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 18 | 17.3 | +0.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 13 | 24.9 | −11.9 |
  Freiburg | 19 | 15 | 22.6 | −7.6 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 19 | 28 | 34.1 | −6.1 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 18 | 18 | 23.6 | −5.6 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 0 | 4.7 | −4.7 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 1 | 5.6 | −4.6 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 17 | 21.4 | −4.4 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 38 | 41.5 | −3.5 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 1 | 3.7 | −2.7 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 2 | 4.0 | −2.0 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | −1.7 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | −0.7 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Eintracht Frankfurt's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 47 | 20 | 25 | 40 | 3.16 | 5.00 | 0.235 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 59 | 24 | 32 | 3.13 | 3.71 | 0.176 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 56 | 24 | 26 | 3.19 | 3.35 | 0.189 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 44 | 25 | 41 | 2.97 | 2.97 | 0.188 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 41 | 25 | 32 | 2.94 | 3.24 | 0.205 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 38 | 25 | 35 | 3.04 | 2.76 | 0.237 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 47 | 24 | 35 | 3.10 | 3.59 | 0.203 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 38 | 24 | 18 | 3.06 | 3.50 | 0.258 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 53 | 24 | 26 | 2.91 | 3.18 | 0.208 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 50 | 27 | 21 | 2.57 | 2.65 | 0.209 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.