All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 68 league matches of Arminia Bielefeld since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 50 times in 100; it said 56. Draws: said 24, happened 31 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches68each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened50 in 100Vesta said 56
Draws31 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.32Vesta expected 2.80
Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 33 | 15.9 | 18.2 | +2.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 83 | 25.6 | 28.9 | +3.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 21 | 45.2 | 38.1 | −7.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 21 | 54.6 | 47.6 | −7.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld
Sat 18 Dec 2021 · Bundesliga8 in 100
Bayern Munich 3-3 Arminia BielefeldMon 15 Feb 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Arminia BielefeldSun 14 Mar 2021 · Bundesliga13 in 100- Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 14 May 2022 · Bundesliga15 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 VfB Stuttgart
Wed 20 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga18 in 100 
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Arminia BielefeldSat 19 Sep 2020 · Bundesliga18 in 100- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Arminia BielefeldFri 21 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Arminia BielefeldSat 6 Nov 2021 · Bundesliga20 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Hertha Berlin
Sun 10 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga22 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Arminia BielefeldSat 22 May 2021 · Bundesliga23 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Freiburg
Fri 9 Apr 2021 · Bundesliga24 in 100 - Freiburg 2-2 Arminia BielefeldSat 8 Jan 2022 · Bundesliga24 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 3-3 Arminia BielefeldMon 15 Feb 2021 · home win said84 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 14 May 2022 · away win said79 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-2 Arminia BielefeldSat 18 Dec 2021 · home win said77 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Arminia BielefeldSat 19 Sep 2020 · home win said71 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Arminia BielefeldSun 14 Mar 2021 · home win said65 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 VfB StuttgartWed 20 Jan 2021 · away win said59 in 100
- Freiburg 2-2 Arminia BielefeldSat 8 Jan 2022 · home win said59 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 0-2 Arminia BielefeldFri 21 Jan 2022 · home win said57 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Arminia BielefeldSat 6 Nov 2021 · home win said55 in 100
Hoffenheim 0-0 Arminia BielefeldSat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said54 in 100- Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 Union Berlin
Sun 7 Mar 2021 · away win said54 in 100 - Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 Wolfsburg
Sat 20 Nov 2021 · away win said52 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arminia Bielefeld | 68 | 63 | 59.6 | +3.4 |
  Werder Bremen | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 |
  Wolfsburg | 4 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 |
  Augsburg | 4 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 4 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 |
  FC Cologne | 4 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
  Union Berlin | 4 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
  Mainz 05 | 4 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 2 | 2.4 | −0.4 |
  Bochum | 2 | 3 | 3.4 | −0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 7.3 | −6.3 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 5 | 8.1 | −3.1 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4 | 7 | 9.8 | −2.8 |
  Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
  Freiburg | 4 | 5 | 7.0 | −2.0 |
  Hertha Berlin | 4 | 5 | 6.8 | −1.8 |
  Hoffenheim | 4 | 6 | 7.3 | −1.3 |
  Bayern Munich | 4 | 10 | 10.6 | −0.6 |
| Bochum | 2 | 3 | 3.4 | −0.4 |
| Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 2 | 2.4 | −0.4 |
| Mainz 05 | 4 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
| Union Berlin | 4 | 7 | 7.2 | −0.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Arminia Bielefeld's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 56 | 44 | 24 | 38 | 2.83 | 2.35 | 0.177 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 56 | 24 | 24 | 2.76 | 2.29 | 0.202 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.