All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 204 league matches of Hertha Berlin since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 46 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches204each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened46 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match3.01Vesta expected 2.89
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 65 | 15.7 | 18.5 | +2.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 275 | 25.7 | 26.2 | +0.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 78 | 34.6 | 41.0 | +6.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 89 | 44.5 | 38.2 | −6.2 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 50 | 54.6 | 56.0 | +1.4 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 22 | 64.9 | 50.0 | −14.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 2-2 Hertha Berlin
Fri 16 Aug 2019 · Bundesliga7 in 100- Bayern Munich 0-0 Hertha BerlinSat 24 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga12 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Hertha BerlinSat 10 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga13 in 100
Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BerlinSat 27 May 2023 · Bundesliga13 in 100- Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Hertha BerlinWed 18 Dec 2019 · Bundesliga14 in 100
- Hertha Berlin 2-0 Bayern MunichFri 28 Sep 2018 · Bundesliga14 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 Hertha BerlinWed 27 May 2020 · Bundesliga15 in 100- RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-3 Hertha BerlinSun 17 Dec 2017 · Bundesliga16 in 100
Borussia M.Gladbach 0-3 Hertha BerlinSat 9 Feb 2019 · Bundesliga17 in 100- Hertha Berlin 3-0 Hoffenheim
Sat 19 Mar 2022 · Bundesliga17 in 100 
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Hertha BerlinSat 27 Oct 2018 · Bundesliga18 in 100
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Hertha BerlinSat 16 Oct 2021 · Bundesliga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 2-2 Hertha BerlinFri 16 Aug 2019 · home win said91 in 100
- Bayern Munich 0-0 Hertha BerlinSat 24 Feb 2018 · home win said82 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 Hertha BerlinWed 27 May 2020 · home win said77 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Hertha BerlinSat 27 Oct 2018 · home win said70 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Hertha BerlinSat 10 Feb 2018 · home win said68 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 Hertha BerlinWed 18 Dec 2019 · home win said67 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BerlinSat 27 May 2023 · home win said66 in 100
- Hertha Berlin 2-2 Bayern MunichSun 1 Oct 2017 · away win said66 in 100
- Hertha Berlin 2-0 Bayern MunichFri 28 Sep 2018 · away win said65 in 100
- Borussia M.Gladbach 0-3 Hertha BerlinSat 9 Feb 2019 · home win said62 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-3 Hertha BerlinSun 17 Dec 2017 · home win said62 in 100
Freiburg 1-1 Hertha BerlinSat 1 Apr 2023 · home win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 12 | 31 | 24.5 | +6.5 |
  Mainz 05 | 12 | 23 | 17.2 | +5.8 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 29 | 25.2 | +3.8 |
  Werder Bremen | 10 | 17 | 13.9 | +3.1 |
  Union Berlin | 8 | 16 | 13.0 | +3.0 |
  Freiburg | 12 | 20 | 17.1 | +2.9 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 |
  Hoffenheim | 12 | 22 | 21.1 | +0.9 |
  Wolfsburg | 12 | 20 | 19.2 | +0.8 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Augsburg | 12 | 7 | 16.4 | −9.4 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 12 | 15 | 22.9 | −7.9 |
  Hertha Berlin | 204 | 224 | 230.5 | −6.5 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 12 | 18 | 21.1 | −3.1 |
  Bayern Munich | 12 | 27 | 29.8 | −2.8 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 0 | 2.6 | −2.6 |
  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | −2.0 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | −1.8 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 4 | 5.0 | −1.0 |
  Bochum | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | −0.4 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 10 | 14 | 14.3 | −0.3 |
  FC Cologne | 10 | 14 | 13.8 | +0.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Hertha Berlin's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 56 | 24 | 24 | 2.93 | 3.26 | 0.172 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 56 | 25 | 18 | 2.86 | 3.18 | 0.198 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 44 | 25 | 32 | 2.84 | 2.74 | 0.182 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 50 | 24 | 24 | 3.04 | 3.15 | 0.236 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 38 | 24 | 29 | 2.96 | 3.12 | 0.225 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 32 | 26 | 38 | 2.69 | 2.62 | 0.231 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.