All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 277 league matches of VfB Stuttgart since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 54 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 24, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches277each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened54 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match3.10Vesta expected 3.04
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 105 | 15.9 | 13.3 | −2.6 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 364 | 25.2 | 23.9 | −1.3 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 112 | 35.2 | 38.4 | +3.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 98 | 45.0 | 48.0 | +2.9 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 78 | 54.8 | 50.0 | −4.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 39 | 64.9 | 76.9 | +12.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 1-4 VfB Stuttgart
Sat 12 May 2018 · Bundesliga5 in 100- Bayern Munich 2-2 VfB StuttgartSun 8 May 2022 · Bundesliga10 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 FC Heidenheim
Fri 25 Apr 2025 · Bundesliga12 in 100 - Bayern Munich 2-2 VfB StuttgartSat 10 Sep 2022 · Bundesliga12 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia M.Gladbach
Sat 1 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 0-1 St. Pauli
Sat 21 Dec 2024 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FC HeidenheimSun 31 Mar 2024 · Bundesliga14 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Hoffenheim
Sun 6 Oct 2024 · Bundesliga15 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 1-1 FC Cologne
Sat 24 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga16 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sun 10 Nov 2024 · Bundesliga17 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Wolfsburg
Sat 15 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga18 in 100 
Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 VfB StuttgartWed 20 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 2-2 VfB StuttgartSun 8 May 2022 · home win said85 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-4 VfB StuttgartSat 12 May 2018 · home win said83 in 100
- Bayern Munich 2-2 VfB StuttgartSat 10 Sep 2022 · home win said83 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FC HeidenheimSun 31 Mar 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 FC CologneSat 24 Feb 2024 · home win said76 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 HoffenheimSun 6 Oct 2024 · home win said75 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 0-1 FC HeidenheimFri 25 Apr 2025 · home win said70 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Borussia M.GladbachSat 1 Feb 2025 · home win said68 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen
Sun 26 Apr 2026 · home win said65 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 0-1 St. PauliSat 21 Dec 2024 · home win said64 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sat 31 Mar 2018 · home win said63 in 100 
Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 VfB StuttgartFri 1 Nov 2024 · home win said63 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 10 | 3.7 | +6.3 |
  Freiburg | 16 | 26 | 19.9 | +6.1 |
  Schalke 04 | 8 | 15 | 10.4 | +4.6 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 8 | 3.9 | +4.1 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 16 | 32 | 28.0 | +4.0 |
  Hamburger SV | 4 | 7 | 3.3 | +3.7 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 16 | 26 | 22.6 | +3.4 |
  Union Berlin | 12 | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
  Bayern Munich | 17 | 41 | 38.9 | +2.1 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 16 | 29 | 27.6 | +1.4 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 2 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Augsburg | 16 | 8 | 17.3 | −9.3 |
  FC Cologne | 13 | 6 | 15.3 | −9.3 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 16 | 17 | 21.5 | −4.5 |
  Mainz 05 | 16 | 16 | 20.3 | −4.3 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 277 | 381 | 385.2 | −4.2 |
  Bochum | 8 | 5 | 7.5 | −2.5 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | −1.7 |
  Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1.3 | −1.3 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | −1.2 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 17 | 29 | 30.1 | −1.1 |
  Hoffenheim | 17 | 23 | 24.1 | −1.1 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | −0.8 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
VfB Stuttgart's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 50 | 100 | 23 | 0 | 3.53 | 3.40 | 0.174 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 59 | 23 | 24 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 0.188 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 50 | 23 | 24 | 3.23 | 3.44 | 0.242 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 62 | 22 | 12 | 3.23 | 3.44 | 0.212 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 47 | 25 | 35 | 2.94 | 3.00 | 0.197 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 38 | 24 | 35 | 3.09 | 2.94 | 0.200 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 3.07 | 3.26 | 0.210 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 62 | 25 | 21 | 2.79 | 3.00 | 0.169 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 59 | 26 | 18 | 2.67 | 2.12 | 0.231 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.