All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Augsburg since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 50 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 25, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened50 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match3.00Vesta expected 2.92
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 31 | 6.4 | 12.9 | +6.5 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 109 | 15.7 | 11.9 | −3.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 404 | 25.9 | 28.0 | +2.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 126 | 35.0 | 31.7 | −3.3 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 126 | 44.9 | 46.0 | +1.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 63 | 54.6 | 54.0 | −0.7 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 43 | 64.1 | 58.1 | −6.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 1-2 Augsburg
Sat 24 Jan 2026 · Bundesliga2 in 100- Augsburg 2-1 Bayern MunichFri 19 Nov 2021 · Bundesliga4 in 100
- Augsburg 1-0 Bayern MunichSat 17 Sep 2022 · Bundesliga7 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 AugsburgTue 25 Sep 2018 · Bundesliga10 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 13 Aug 2022 · Bundesliga11 in 100- Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 18 Apr 2026 · Bundesliga11 in 100
- Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 19 Oct 2019 · Bundesliga12 in 100
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 AugsburgSun 14 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga12 in 100- Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 10 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga13 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 0-1 AugsburgSat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga14 in 100- Augsburg 2-0 Bayer LeverkusenSat 6 Dec 2025 · Bundesliga16 in 100
- Augsburg 2-0 Borussia DortmundSat 26 Sep 2020 · Bundesliga17 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 1-2 AugsburgSat 24 Jan 2026 · home win said91 in 100
- Augsburg 2-1 Bayern MunichFri 19 Nov 2021 · away win said87 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 AugsburgTue 25 Sep 2018 · home win said86 in 100
- Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 19 Oct 2019 · away win said82 in 100
- Augsburg 1-0 Bayern MunichSat 17 Sep 2022 · away win said79 in 100
- Augsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 10 Oct 2026 · away win said79 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 AugsburgSat 9 Mar 2019 · home win said70 in 100- Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 18 Apr 2026 · home win said70 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgSat 13 Aug 2022 · home win said70 in 100
- Augsburg 1-1 Borussia DortmundSun 27 Feb 2022 · away win said70 in 100
- Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 AugsburgSun 14 Apr 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-1 AugsburgMon 26 Feb 2018 · home win said68 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 38 | 26.7 | +11.3 |
  Augsburg | 311 | 350 | 339.6 | +10.4 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 25 | 16.3 | +8.7 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 33 | 27.0 | +6.0 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 35 | 29.3 | +5.7 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 6 | 2.3 | +3.7 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 18 | 39 | 37.0 | +2.0 |
  Werder Bremen | 17 | 26 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
  Schalke 04 | 11 | 16 | 15.0 | +1.0 |
  Bochum | 8 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Union Berlin | 14 | 14 | 22.3 | −8.3 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 21 | 29.1 | −8.1 |
  Bayern Munich | 19 | 42 | 49.0 | −7.0 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 19 | 27 | 33.3 | −6.3 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 18 | 25 | 30.4 | −5.4 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 2 | 5.0 | −3.0 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 18 | 20.6 | −2.6 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 36 | 38.3 | −2.3 |
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 25 | 27.1 | −2.1 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 3 | 5.0 | −2.0 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 4 | 5.8 | −1.8 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | −1.5 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 53 | 40 | 23 | 40 | 3.37 | 4.20 | 0.243 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 53 | 25 | 21 | 2.89 | 3.12 | 0.223 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 44 | 26 | 29 | 2.85 | 2.53 | 0.208 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 59 | 23 | 26 | 3.13 | 3.24 | 0.183 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 53 | 24 | 21 | 2.98 | 3.09 | 0.222 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 47 | 24 | 24 | 2.91 | 2.79 | 0.228 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 53 | 25 | 18 | 2.75 | 2.65 | 0.210 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 59 | 23 | 26 | 3.09 | 3.18 | 0.174 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 47 | 24 | 24 | 2.90 | 3.59 | 0.220 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 38 | 26 | 32 | 2.74 | 2.62 | 0.215 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.