All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of RasenBallsport Leipzig since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 57. Draws: said 22, happened 24 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 57
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 22
Goals a match3.14Vesta expected 3.11
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 39 | 7.7 | 2.6 | −5.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 198 | 15.8 | 18.2 | +2.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 328 | 24.3 | 24.7 | +0.4 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 80 | 34.5 | 32.5 | −2.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 73 | 44.7 | 47.9 | +3.2 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 80 | 54.9 | 51.2 | −3.6 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 87 | 64.6 | 66.7 | +2.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 40 | 74.8 | 67.5 | −7.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-2 Arminia Bielefeld
Sat 18 Dec 2021 · Bundesliga8 in 100
FC Cologne 2-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigTue 20 Apr 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100
Mainz 05 3-2 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 23 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Paderborn
Sat 6 Jun 2020 · Bundesliga11 in 100 
Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 14 Oct 2017 · Bundesliga12 in 100- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sat 13 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga12 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 Bochum
Sat 7 Oct 2023 · Bundesliga12 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-2 FC CologneSun 25 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga12 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Werder Bremen
Sat 11 May 2024 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - Bochum 1-0 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 18 Mar 2023 · Bundesliga14 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 Fortuna Duesseldorf
Wed 17 Jun 2020 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Freiburg
Sat 16 May 2020 · Bundesliga15 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 PaderbornSat 6 Jun 2020 · home win said84 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 BochumSat 7 Oct 2023 · home win said82 in 100
- Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 14 May 2022 · away win said79 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Werder BremenSat 11 May 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 Fortuna DuesseldorfWed 17 Jun 2020 · home win said78 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 FreiburgSat 16 May 2020 · home win said77 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-2 Arminia BielefeldSat 18 Dec 2021 · home win said77 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 Hertha Berlin
Wed 27 May 2020 · home win said77 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Hamburger SV
Sat 27 Jan 2018 · home win said75 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 Mainz 05Sat 30 Mar 2024 · home win said74 in 100
- Mainz 05 3-2 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 23 Jan 2021 · away win said72 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 3-3 Bayern Munich
Sat 3 May 2025 · away win said71 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 25 | 14.6 | +10.4 |
  Union Berlin | 14 | 20 | 11.4 | +8.6 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 19 | 29 | 24.2 | +4.8 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 19 | 22 | 18.3 | +3.7 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 4 | 1.5 | +2.5 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 18 | 16.5 | +1.5 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 18 | 16.6 | +1.4 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 |
  Bochum | 8 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 7 | 7.5 | −0.5 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 2 | 2.6 | −0.6 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 4 | 8.9 | −4.9 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 311 | 564 | 568.4 | −4.4 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 9 | 13.2 | −4.2 |
  Werder Bremen | 17 | 10 | 13.5 | −3.5 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 0 | 3.5 | −3.5 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 1 | 4.2 | −3.2 |
  Hamburger SV | 5 | 1 | 3.9 | −2.9 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 14 | 16.3 | −2.3 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 34 | 35.8 | −1.8 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | −1.4 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 2 | 3.3 | −1.3 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 19 | 16 | 17.2 | −1.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
RasenBallsport Leipzig's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 59 | 80 | 22 | 0 | 3.36 | 4.00 | 0.174 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 68 | 24 | 15 | 3.16 | 3.32 | 0.190 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 44 | 25 | 35 | 3.03 | 2.97 | 0.200 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 61 | 59 | 21 | 24 | 3.21 | 3.41 | 0.175 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 57 | 62 | 23 | 18 | 3.07 | 3.09 | 0.200 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 61 | 56 | 21 | 21 | 3.19 | 3.21 | 0.215 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 60 | 59 | 22 | 24 | 3.00 | 2.71 | 0.169 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 63 | 53 | 20 | 35 | 3.27 | 3.47 | 0.172 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 57 | 59 | 22 | 26 | 3.08 | 2.71 | 0.170 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 38 | 24 | 24 | 2.93 | 3.24 | 0.245 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.