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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 136 league matches of Bochum since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 52 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 23, happened 23 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	23	6.5	8.7	+2.2
10–20 in 100	62	15.9	17.7	+1.9
20–30 in 100	151	25.2	27.2	+1.9
30–40 in 100	55	34.9	36.4	+1.5
40–50 in 100	42	44.5	40.5	−4.0
50–60 in 100	34	55.5	55.9	+0.4

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Borussia M.Gladbach	8	21	13.6	+7.4
Freiburg	8	21	14.0	+7.0
Werder Bremen	6	16	10.1	+5.9
Mainz 05	8	19	14.1	+4.9
Schalke 04	2	6	2.7	+3.3
Bochum	136	133	130.0	+3.0
VfB Stuttgart	8	17	14.6	+2.4
Wolfsburg	8	16	14.4	+1.6
Arminia Bielefeld	2	3	2.0	+1.0
Hertha Berlin	4	5	5.5	−0.5
FC Cologne	6	9	9.6	−0.6
Bayer Leverkusen	8	17	17.7	−0.7

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Borussia Dortmund	8	12	18.2	−6.2
Bayern Munich	8	15	21.0	−6.0
Union Berlin	8	9	14.2	−5.2
St. Pauli	2	0	3.4	−3.4
Eintracht Frankfurt	8	12	14.8	−2.8
FC Heidenheim	4	3	5.7	−2.7
Greuther Fuerth	2	0	2.4	−2.4
Darmstadt	2	1	2.5	−1.5
Hoffenheim	8	12	13.3	−1.3
RasenBallsport Leipzig	8	17	18.2	−1.2
Holstein Kiel	2	2	3.0	−1.0
Augsburg	8	11	11.7	−0.7

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Bochum's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2024-25	Bundesliga	34	59	59	22	24	3.31	2.94	0.196
2023-24	Bundesliga	34	55	53	23	35	3.24	3.41	0.186
2022-23	Bundesliga	34	55	56	23	15	3.11	3.29	0.228
2021-22	Bundesliga	34	51	41	25	18	2.94	2.65	0.238

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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