All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Mainz 05 since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 45 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 26 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened45 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws26 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.92Vesta expected 2.94
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 20 | 7.1 | 20.0 | +12.9 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 96 | 16.3 | 17.7 | +1.5 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 414 | 25.7 | 27.3 | +1.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 144 | 34.9 | 35.4 | +0.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 129 | 44.9 | 42.6 | −2.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 74 | 54.6 | 55.4 | +0.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 31 | 64.1 | 48.4 | −15.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 2-2 Mainz 05
Sun 14 Dec 2025 · Bundesliga8 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Mainz 05Wed 17 Jun 2020 · Bundesliga8 in 100- Mainz 05 3-1 Bayern MunichSat 30 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga9 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Mainz 05Sat 5 May 2018 · Bundesliga10 in 100
- Mainz 05 3-2 RasenBallsport Leipzig
Sat 23 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100 - Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern MunichSat 24 Apr 2021 · Bundesliga11 in 100
Hoffenheim 1-5 Mainz 05Sun 24 Nov 2019 · Bundesliga14 in 100- Mainz 05 2-3 Schalke 04
Fri 5 May 2023 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Mainz 05Sat 27 May 2023 · Bundesliga15 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-3 Mainz 05Sat 1 Apr 2023 · Bundesliga15 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Mainz 05Sat 16 Jan 2021 · Bundesliga16 in 100
- Mainz 05 0-1 FC Heidenheim
Sat 16 Dec 2023 · Bundesliga16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 2-2 Mainz 05Sun 14 Dec 2025 · home win said89 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Mainz 05Wed 17 Jun 2020 · home win said77 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Mainz 05Sat 27 May 2023 · home win said76 in 100
- Mainz 05 3-1 Bayern MunichSat 30 Apr 2022 · away win said76 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Mainz 05Sat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said74 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 0-0 Mainz 05Sat 30 Mar 2024 · home win said74 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Mainz 05Sat 5 May 2018 · home win said73 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-1 Mainz 05Sun 23 Dec 2018 · home win said73 in 100
- Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern MunichSat 24 Apr 2021 · away win said73 in 100
- Mainz 05 3-2 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 23 Jan 2021 · away win said72 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-5 Mainz 05Sun 24 Nov 2019 · home win said68 in 100
- Mainz 05 2-3 Schalke 04Fri 5 May 2023 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Union Berlin | 14 | 29 | 19.0 | +10.0 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 19 | 42 | 34.7 | +7.3 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 21 | 13.8 | +7.2 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 28 | 22.1 | +5.9 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 10 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 28 | 23.6 | +4.4 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 30 | 25.9 | +4.1 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 27 | 24.1 | +2.9 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 24 | 21.4 | +2.6 |
  Greuther Fuerth | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 36 | 35.6 | +0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 18 | 25 | 35.4 | −10.4 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 19 | 27.7 | −8.7 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 8 | 15.7 | −7.7 |
  Mainz 05 | 311 | 381 | 387.3 | −6.3 |
  Bochum | 8 | 4 | 7.9 | −3.9 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 40 | 43.7 | −3.7 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 1 | 4.6 | −3.6 |
  Paderborn | 3 | 1 | 3.4 | −2.4 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 19 | 26 | 28.3 | −2.3 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 1 | 2.7 | −1.7 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 19 | 28 | 29.5 | −1.5 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 4 | 5.1 | −1.1 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 48 | 60 | 25 | 20 | 3.14 | 4.60 | 0.256 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 44 | 26 | 29 | 2.97 | 2.85 | 0.227 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 38 | 26 | 29 | 2.87 | 2.88 | 0.222 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 35 | 25 | 41 | 2.90 | 2.65 | 0.196 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 41 | 25 | 29 | 2.96 | 3.21 | 0.239 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 41 | 26 | 21 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 0.236 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 41 | 24 | 26 | 3.06 | 2.79 | 0.244 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 53 | 23 | 12 | 3.25 | 3.21 | 0.236 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 53 | 59 | 24 | 21 | 2.86 | 3.03 | 0.196 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 53 | 26 | 26 | 2.71 | 2.65 | 0.199 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.