All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 306 league matches of Wolfsburg since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches306each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.98Vesta expected 2.91
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 91 | 16.3 | 14.3 | −2.1 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 411 | 25.9 | 29.4 | +3.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 146 | 35.0 | 34.9 | −0.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 133 | 44.6 | 39.8 | −4.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 66 | 54.4 | 45.5 | −9.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 37 | 64.1 | 64.9 | +0.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 2-2 Wolfsburg
Fri 22 Sep 2017 · Bundesliga12 in 100
Hoffenheim 1-4 WolfsburgSun 28 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga12 in 100- Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha Berlin
Sat 27 May 2023 · Bundesliga13 in 100 
Borussia Dortmund 0-0 WolfsburgSun 14 Jan 2018 · Bundesliga15 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 WolfsburgSat 1 Sep 2018 · Bundesliga16 in 100- Wolfsburg 0-1 FC Heidenheim
Sat 29 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga17 in 100 
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-5 WolfsburgSat 30 Nov 2024 · Bundesliga17 in 100
VfB Stuttgart 1-2 WolfsburgSat 15 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga18 in 100
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 WolfsburgSun 2 Dec 2018 · Bundesliga18 in 100- Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BerlinSat 25 Jan 2020 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- Wolfsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 14 May 2022 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-1 WolfsburgSat 14 Mar 2026 · Bundesliga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 2-2 WolfsburgFri 22 Sep 2017 · home win said83 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 0-0 WolfsburgSun 14 Jan 2018 · home win said77 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-4 WolfsburgSun 28 Apr 2019 · home win said71 in 100
- Wolfsburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 14 May 2022 · away win said67 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BerlinSat 27 May 2023 · home win said66 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-1 Bochum
Sat 22 Feb 2025 · home win said66 in 100 - Hoffenheim 1-1 WolfsburgSat 14 Mar 2026 · home win said66 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-1 Fortuna Duesseldorf
Sat 8 Feb 2020 · home win said65 in 100 - Wolfsburg 2-2 Holstein Kiel
Fri 24 Jan 2025 · home win said64 in 100 - Wolfsburg 2-2 Augsburg
Sat 1 Apr 2023 · home win said63 in 100 - RasenBallsport Leipzig 2-2 WolfsburgSun 15 Feb 2026 · home win said63 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 WolfsburgSat 1 Sep 2018 · home win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 47 | 34.1 | +12.9 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 50 | 41.6 | +8.4 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 31 | 23.4 | +7.6 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 27 | 20.1 | +6.9 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 25 | 19.6 | +5.4 |
  Hamburger SV | 4 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 24 | 22.7 | +1.3 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 18 | 17.5 | +0.5 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 32 | 32.5 | −0.5 |
  Bochum | 8 | 7 | 7.7 | −0.7 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | −0.9 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 1 | 2.2 | −1.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 18 | 21 | 27.0 | −6.0 |
  Wolfsburg | 306 | 398 | 403.4 | −5.4 |
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 18 | 23.3 | −5.3 |
  Union Berlin | 14 | 15 | 18.2 | −3.2 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 18 | 30 | 33.2 | −3.2 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 2 | 4.9 | −2.9 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 11 | 13.7 | −2.7 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 24 | 26.5 | −2.5 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 1 | 3.3 | −2.3 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 2 | 4.2 | −2.2 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 10 | 12.1 | −2.1 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | −2.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Wolfsburg's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 53 | 24 | 24 | 3.13 | 3.35 | 0.196 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 38 | 25 | 29 | 3.05 | 3.24 | 0.241 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 53 | 24 | 21 | 3.01 | 2.85 | 0.201 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 44 | 25 | 29 | 2.96 | 3.09 | 0.218 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 47 | 26 | 18 | 2.84 | 2.85 | 0.218 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 62 | 26 | 29 | 2.74 | 2.88 | 0.173 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 41 | 25 | 29 | 2.87 | 2.76 | 0.222 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 47 | 24 | 21 | 2.88 | 3.29 | 0.229 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 41 | 26 | 44 | 2.75 | 2.47 | 0.198 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.