All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Hoffenheim since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 45 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 24, happened 25 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened45 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match3.40Vesta expected 3.19
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 11
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 21 | 7.5 | 9.5 | +2.1 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 107 | 16.2 | 24.3 | +8.1 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 393 | 24.9 | 25.7 | +0.8 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 149 | 35.0 | 37.6 | +2.6 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 117 | 45.1 | 36.8 | −8.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 79 | 54.2 | 57.0 | +2.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 43 | 64.3 | 51.2 | −13.2 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 1-2 Hoffenheim
Sat 5 Oct 2019 · Bundesliga7 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HoffenheimSun 25 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga10 in 100- Hoffenheim 4-1 Bayern MunichSun 27 Sep 2020 · Bundesliga11 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 HoffenheimSat 15 Apr 2023 · Bundesliga12 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-4 Wolfsburg
Sun 28 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga12 in 100 
Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 HoffenheimSat 23 Aug 2025 · Bundesliga13 in 100- Hoffenheim 0-3 Freiburg
Sun 15 Sep 2019 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Hoffenheim 0-1 Werder Bremen
Sat 11 May 2019 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Hoffenheim 1-5 Mainz 05
Sun 24 Nov 2019 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - Hoffenheim 1-1 Fortuna Duesseldorf
Sat 2 Feb 2019 · Bundesliga15 in 100 
VfB Stuttgart 1-1 HoffenheimSun 6 Oct 2024 · Bundesliga15 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 1-1 HoffenheimSat 15 Apr 2023 · home win said82 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-2 HoffenheimSat 5 Oct 2019 · home win said80 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-1 Fortuna DuesseldorfSat 2 Feb 2019 · home win said76 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 HoffenheimSun 6 Oct 2024 · home win said75 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HoffenheimSun 25 Feb 2024 · home win said75 in 100
- Hoffenheim 4-1 Bayern MunichSun 27 Sep 2020 · away win said74 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-1 Mainz 05Sun 23 Dec 2018 · home win said73 in 100
- Hoffenheim 1-4 WolfsburgSun 28 Apr 2019 · home win said71 in 100
- Hoffenheim 0-1 Werder BremenSat 11 May 2019 · home win said69 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-1 HoffenheimSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- Hoffenheim 0-0 Greuther Fuerth
Sun 17 Apr 2022 · home win said69 in 100 - Hoffenheim 0-3 FreiburgSun 15 Sep 2019 · home win said69 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 18 | 37 | 24.6 | +12.4 |
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 31 | 22.0 | +9.0 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 32 | 23.2 | +8.8 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 18 | 30 | 24.5 | +5.5 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
  Bochum | 8 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
  Hamburger SV | 5 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
  Union Berlin | 14 | 20 | 18.1 | +1.9 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 24 | 23.0 | +1.0 |
  Paderborn | 3 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 18 | 33 | 33.4 | −0.4 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hoffenheim | 311 | 425 | 436.8 | −11.8 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 14 | 20.2 | −6.2 |
  Werder Bremen | 16 | 12 | 17.8 | −5.8 |
  FC Cologne | 15 | 12 | 17.7 | −5.7 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 38 | 42.5 | −4.5 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 3 | 6.8 | −3.8 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 28 | 31.2 | −3.2 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 17 | 20 | 22.9 | −2.9 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 8 | 10.2 | −2.2 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 10 | 12.0 | −2.0 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 0 | 1.9 | −1.9 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | −1.5 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Hoffenheim's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 45 | 40 | 25 | 0 | 3.19 | 4.40 | 0.326 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 47 | 24 | 21 | 3.15 | 3.44 | 0.216 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 38 | 24 | 32 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 0.193 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 47 | 23 | 21 | 3.28 | 3.88 | 0.241 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 59 | 24 | 18 | 3.15 | 3.09 | 0.204 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 50 | 24 | 21 | 3.15 | 3.47 | 0.216 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 44 | 24 | 29 | 3.13 | 3.12 | 0.233 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 35 | 23 | 21 | 3.29 | 3.12 | 0.280 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 57 | 44 | 21 | 35 | 3.37 | 3.59 | 0.209 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 44 | 24 | 29 | 2.95 | 3.35 | 0.202 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.