All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Freiburg since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.97Vesta expected 2.96
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 92 | 16.1 | 9.8 | −6.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 414 | 25.4 | 27.5 | +2.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 158 | 35.0 | 34.8 | −0.2 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 116 | 44.9 | 39.7 | −5.3 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 82 | 54.8 | 56.1 | +1.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 36 | 64.1 | 75.0 | +10.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 1-1 Freiburg
Sat 3 Nov 2018 · Bundesliga10 in 100- Freiburg 1-1 Bayern MunichSat 30 Mar 2019 · Bundesliga12 in 100
Hoffenheim 0-3 FreiburgSun 15 Sep 2019 · Bundesliga13 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FreiburgSat 27 Jan 2018 · Bundesliga13 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 FreiburgSat 16 May 2020 · Bundesliga15 in 100- Freiburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 15 May 2021 · Bundesliga16 in 100
- Freiburg 3-0 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 8 Dec 2018 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- Freiburg 0-0 Borussia DortmundSat 9 Sep 2017 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- Freiburg 2-1 Borussia DortmundSat 21 Aug 2021 · Bundesliga19 in 100
- Freiburg 0-3 St. Pauli
Sat 28 Sep 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100 
Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FreiburgSat 23 Nov 2019 · Bundesliga20 in 100- Freiburg 2-1 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 26 Oct 2019 · Bundesliga20 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 1-1 FreiburgSat 3 Nov 2018 · home win said86 in 100
- Freiburg 1-1 Bayern MunichSat 30 Mar 2019 · away win said81 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FreiburgSat 27 Jan 2018 · home win said80 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 FreiburgSat 16 May 2020 · home win said77 in 100
- Freiburg 2-2 Bayern MunichSat 15 May 2021 · away win said74 in 100
- Hoffenheim 0-3 FreiburgSun 15 Sep 2019 · home win said69 in 100
- Freiburg 0-0 Borussia DortmundSat 9 Sep 2017 · away win said68 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FreiburgSat 23 Nov 2019 · home win said66 in 100
- Freiburg 1-1 Darmstadt
Sat 25 Nov 2023 · home win said65 in 100 - Freiburg 1-1 Hertha Berlin
Sat 1 Apr 2023 · home win said62 in 100 
Schalke 04 0-0 FreiburgSat 16 Feb 2019 · home win said61 in 100
Werder Bremen 0-0 FreiburgSat 23 Sep 2017 · home win said61 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Freiburg | 311 | 436 | 389.5 | +46.5 |
  Union Berlin | 14 | 26 | 18.0 | +8.0 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 18 | 40 | 35.9 | +4.1 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 19 | 33 | 29.5 | +3.5 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 46 | 43.4 | +2.6 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
  Hamburger SV | 4 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 33 | 33.0 | 0.0 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | −0.6 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 19 | 16 | 28.6 | −12.6 |
  Hoffenheim | 18 | 17 | 26.4 | −9.4 |
  Werder Bremen | 17 | 14 | 22.3 | −8.3 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 15 | 22.3 | −7.3 |
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 19 | 25.9 | −6.9 |
  Schalke 04 | 11 | 8 | 14.2 | −6.2 |
  Bochum | 8 | 3 | 8.0 | −5.0 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 11 | 15.7 | −4.7 |
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 21 | 25.0 | −4.0 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 16 | 20 | 23.9 | −3.9 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 14 | 17.4 | −3.4 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | −2.5 |
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 49 | 60 | 26 | 20 | 2.96 | 3.60 | 0.164 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 2.93 | 3.18 | 0.202 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 56 | 25 | 21 | 2.98 | 3.00 | 0.189 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 56 | 24 | 26 | 3.04 | 3.03 | 0.185 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 71 | 25 | 24 | 2.98 | 2.79 | 0.166 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 38 | 25 | 29 | 2.93 | 3.06 | 0.210 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 48 | 50 | 25 | 26 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 0.203 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 3.13 | 2.79 | 0.261 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 41 | 24 | 35 | 2.94 | 3.15 | 0.209 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 52 | 44 | 25 | 35 | 2.80 | 2.59 | 0.191 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.