All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 311 league matches of Borussia Dortmund since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 63 times in 100; it said 58. Draws: said 22, happened 19 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches311each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened63 in 100Vesta said 58
Draws19 in 100Vesta said 22
Goals a match3.53Vesta expected 3.24
Likeliest score happened9 in 100Vesta said 11
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 36 | 8.2 | 13.9 | +5.7 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 218 | 15.9 | 14.7 | −1.2 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 309 | 24.0 | 19.4 | −4.6 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 74 | 34.1 | 33.8 | −0.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 82 | 44.7 | 47.6 | +2.8 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 82 | 55.7 | 69.5 | +13.8 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 76 | 65.2 | 65.8 | +0.6 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 52 | 74.2 | 75.0 | +0.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Mainz 05
Wed 17 Jun 2020 · Bundesliga8 in 100- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Werder Bremen
Sat 9 Dec 2017 · Bundesliga9 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Mainz 05Sat 5 May 2018 · Bundesliga10 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 FC Cologne
Sat 28 Nov 2020 · Bundesliga10 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Hoffenheim
Sun 25 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga10 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 3-4 Bochum
Sat 30 Apr 2022 · Bundesliga12 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RasenBallsport Leipzig
Sat 14 Oct 2017 · Bundesliga12 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Werder BremenSat 20 Aug 2022 · Bundesliga13 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-4 Schalke 04
Sat 27 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Freiburg
Sat 27 Jan 2018 · Bundesliga13 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Augsburg
Sat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga14 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Mainz 05Sat 27 May 2023 · Bundesliga15 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FreiburgSat 27 Jan 2018 · home win said80 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 0-2 Mainz 05Wed 17 Jun 2020 · home win said77 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Wolfsburg
Sun 14 Jan 2018 · home win said77 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Mainz 05Sat 27 May 2023 · home win said76 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Werder BremenSat 9 Dec 2017 · home win said75 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HoffenheimSun 25 Feb 2024 · home win said75 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 FC Heidenheim
Fri 1 Sep 2023 · home win said75 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 3-3 Paderborn
Fri 22 Nov 2019 · home win said74 in 100 - Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Mainz 05Sat 16 Jan 2021 · home win said74 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Mainz 05Sat 5 May 2018 · home win said73 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 FC CologneSat 28 Nov 2020 · home win said73 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-3 RasenBallsport LeipzigSat 14 Oct 2017 · home win said71 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Borussia Dortmund | 311 | 610 | 578.7 | +31.3 |
  Bayern Munich | 18 | 42 | 35.2 | +6.8 |
  Bochum | 8 | 9 | 4.4 | +4.6 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 17 | 20 | 16.9 | +3.1 |
  Augsburg | 18 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
  Hannover 96 | 4 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 18 | 25 | 23.9 | +1.1 |
  Hoffenheim | 19 | 19 | 18.1 | +0.9 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
  Mainz 05 | 18 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Wolfsburg | 18 | 5 | 15.8 | −10.8 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 18 | 12 | 17.5 | −5.5 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 18 | 18 | 23.1 | −5.1 |
  Freiburg | 18 | 10 | 14.2 | −4.2 |
  Hertha Berlin | 12 | 5 | 8.3 | −3.3 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 18 | 13 | 16.3 | −3.3 |
  FC Cologne | 14 | 8 | 10.2 | −2.2 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 1 | 3.1 | −2.1 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 4 | 0 | 2.1 | −2.1 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 2 | 3.8 | −1.8 |
  Hamburger SV | 5 | 1 | 2.6 | −1.6 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | −1.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Borussia Dortmund's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 57 | 80 | 23 | 20 | 3.16 | 3.00 | 0.166 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 58 | 65 | 23 | 21 | 3.15 | 3.06 | 0.142 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 56 | 23 | 18 | 3.21 | 3.59 | 0.219 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 59 | 59 | 21 | 26 | 3.49 | 3.26 | 0.179 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 56 | 71 | 22 | 15 | 3.26 | 3.74 | 0.178 |
| 2021-22 | Bundesliga | 34 | 58 | 76 | 21 | 9 | 3.38 | 4.03 | 0.178 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 56 | 59 | 23 | 12 | 3.07 | 3.56 | 0.219 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 59 | 65 | 21 | 18 | 3.27 | 3.68 | 0.176 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 57 | 62 | 22 | 21 | 3.10 | 3.68 | 0.173 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 61 | 56 | 21 | 29 | 3.22 | 3.26 | 0.208 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.