All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 34 league matches of Nuernberg since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 24, happened 29 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches34each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.76Vesta expected 2.82
Likeliest score happened29 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 41 | 25.6 | 22.0 | −3.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Nuernberg 1-1 Bayern Munich
Sun 28 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga10 in 100- Nuernberg 0-0 Borussia Dortmund
Mon 18 Feb 2019 · Bundesliga20 in 100 - Nuernberg 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen
Mon 3 Dec 2018 · Bundesliga24 in 100 
Augsburg 2-2 NuernbergSat 3 Nov 2018 · Bundesliga24 in 100- Nuernberg 1-1 Werder Bremen
Sat 2 Feb 2019 · Bundesliga26 in 100 - Nuernberg 0-2 VfB Stuttgart
Sat 10 Nov 2018 · Bundesliga26 in 100 - Nuernberg 1-1 Mainz 05
Sat 1 Sep 2018 · Bundesliga27 in 100 - Nuernberg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sun 28 Oct 2018 · Bundesliga27 in 100 - VfB Stuttgart 1-1 NuernbergSat 6 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga27 in 100
- Werder Bremen 1-1 NuernbergSun 16 Sep 2018 · Bundesliga29 in 100
- Nuernberg 1-1 Schalke 04
Fri 12 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga29 in 100 - Nuernberg 3-0 AugsburgSat 30 Mar 2019 · Bundesliga32 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Nuernberg 1-1 Bayern MunichSun 28 Apr 2019 · away win said86 in 100
- Nuernberg 0-0 Borussia DortmundMon 18 Feb 2019 · away win said68 in 100
- Augsburg 2-2 NuernbergSat 3 Nov 2018 · home win said58 in 100
- Nuernberg 1-1 Bayer LeverkusenMon 3 Dec 2018 · away win said53 in 100
- Nuernberg 1-1 Mainz 05Sat 1 Sep 2018 · home win said51 in 100
- Nuernberg 1-1 Werder BremenSat 2 Feb 2019 · away win said49 in 100
- VfB Stuttgart 1-1 NuernbergSat 6 Apr 2019 · home win said49 in 100
- Nuernberg 0-2 VfB StuttgartSat 10 Nov 2018 · home win said46 in 100
- Nuernberg 1-1 Eintracht FrankfurtSun 28 Oct 2018 · away win said44 in 100
- Werder Bremen 1-1 NuernbergSun 16 Sep 2018 · home win said44 in 100
- Nuernberg 3-0 AugsburgSat 30 Mar 2019 · away win said40 in 100
- Nuernberg 1-1 Schalke 04Fri 12 Apr 2019 · away win said39 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Freiburg | 2 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
  Wolfsburg | 2 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
  Hertha Berlin | 2 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 2 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
  Hoffenheim | 2 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
  Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
  Schalke 04 | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
  Hannover 96 | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Nuernberg | 34 | 19 | 32.8 | −13.8 |
  Augsburg | 2 | 1 | 3.5 | −2.5 |
  Bayern Munich | 2 | 4 | 5.4 | −1.4 |
  Werder Bremen | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | −1.3 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 4 | 4.2 | −0.2 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| Fortuna Duesseldorf | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| Hannover 96 | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| Schalke 04 | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| Mainz 05 | 2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Nuernberg's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 62 | 24 | 29 | 2.82 | 2.76 | 0.157 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.