All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 68 league matches of Hannover 96 since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 60 times in 100; it said 53. Draws: said 24, happened 22 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches68each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened60 in 100Vesta said 53
Draws22 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.94Vesta expected 2.95
Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 27 | 16.0 | 3.7 | −12.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 85 | 25.4 | 24.7 | −0.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 26 | 34.7 | 34.6 | −0.1 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 28 | 44.6 | 46.4 | +1.8 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Hannover 96 4-2 Borussia Dortmund
Sat 28 Oct 2017 · Bundesliga20 in 100- Hannover 96 0-1 Wolfsburg
Sun 28 Jan 2018 · Bundesliga22 in 100 
Mainz 05 0-1 Hannover 96Sat 19 Aug 2017 · Bundesliga23 in 100
Schalke 04 1-1 Hannover 96Sun 21 Jan 2018 · Bundesliga23 in 100
Hertha Berlin 0-0 Hannover 96Sun 21 Apr 2019 · Bundesliga23 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Hannover 96Sat 20 Oct 2018 · Bundesliga24 in 100
Freiburg 1-1 Hannover 96Wed 19 Dec 2018 · Bundesliga24 in 100- Hannover 96 1-3 Augsburg
Sat 10 Mar 2018 · Bundesliga25 in 100 - Hannover 96 0-0 Borussia DortmundFri 31 Aug 2018 · Bundesliga25 in 100
FC Cologne 1-1 Hannover 96Sat 17 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga26 in 100- Hannover 96 0-0 FC CologneSun 24 Sep 2017 · Bundesliga26 in 100
- Hannover 96 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sat 14 Oct 2017 · Bundesliga26 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Hertha Berlin 0-0 Hannover 96Sun 21 Apr 2019 · home win said59 in 100
- Hannover 96 4-2 Borussia DortmundSat 28 Oct 2017 · away win said58 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Hannover 96Sat 20 Oct 2018 · home win said56 in 100
- Schalke 04 1-1 Hannover 96Sun 21 Jan 2018 · home win said56 in 100
- Freiburg 1-1 Hannover 96Wed 19 Dec 2018 · home win said54 in 100
- Hannover 96 0-0 FC CologneSun 24 Sep 2017 · home win said54 in 100
- Hannover 96 0-1 WolfsburgSun 28 Jan 2018 · home win said53 in 100
- Mainz 05 0-1 Hannover 96Sat 19 Aug 2017 · home win said51 in 100
Werder Bremen 1-1 Hannover 96Sat 25 Aug 2018 · home win said49 in 100- Hannover 96 1-3 AugsburgSat 10 Mar 2018 · home win said49 in 100
VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Hannover 96Sat 14 Apr 2018 · home win said49 in 100- Mainz 05 1-1 Hannover 96Sun 9 Dec 2018 · home win said48 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 12 | 6.2 | +5.8 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 4 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
  Augsburg | 4 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
  Bayern Munich | 4 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 |
  Hoffenheim | 4 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
  Werder Bremen | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
  Hertha Berlin | 4 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
  Wolfsburg | 4 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
  Schalke 04 | 4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hannover 96 | 68 | 60 | 74.8 | −14.8 |
  Mainz 05 | 4 | 1 | 5.9 | −4.9 |
  Freiburg | 4 | 2 | 5.3 | −3.3 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 7 | 8.4 | −1.4 |
  Hamburger SV | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | −1.0 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 5 | 5.9 | −0.9 |
  FC Cologne | 2 | 2 | 2.3 | −0.3 |
  Nuernberg | 2 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| Schalke 04 | 4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| Wolfsburg | 4 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| Hertha Berlin | 4 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Hannover 96's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 68 | 23 | 18 | 3.06 | 3.00 | 0.152 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 53 | 25 | 26 | 2.84 | 2.88 | 0.203 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.