All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 277 league matches of Werder Bremen since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches277each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match3.01Vesta expected 2.93
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 22 | 6.9 | 13.6 | +6.7 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 83 | 16.2 | 14.5 | −1.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 363 | 25.7 | 26.7 | +1.0 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 135 | 34.8 | 39.3 | +4.4 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 109 | 44.6 | 39.4 | −5.2 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 64 | 54.3 | 50.0 | −4.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 35 | 64.3 | 62.9 | −1.4 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Bayern Munich 0-1 Werder Bremen
Sun 21 Jan 2024 · Bundesliga3 in 100
Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Werder BremenSat 8 Mar 2025 · Bundesliga6 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Werder BremenSat 9 Dec 2017 · Bundesliga9 in 100- Bayern Munich 1-1 Werder BremenSat 21 Nov 2020 · Bundesliga12 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Werder BremenSat 20 Aug 2022 · Bundesliga13 in 100
Hoffenheim 0-1 Werder BremenSat 11 May 2019 · Bundesliga13 in 100
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Werder BremenSat 11 May 2024 · Bundesliga14 in 100- Werder Bremen 0-1 Augsburg
Fri 9 Sep 2022 · Bundesliga17 in 100 
Schalke 04 1-2 Werder BremenSat 3 Feb 2018 · Bundesliga18 in 100- Werder Bremen 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Fri 26 Feb 2021 · Bundesliga18 in 100 - Werder Bremen 1-2 FC Heidenheim
Sat 10 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga19 in 100 - Werder Bremen 0-1 Paderborn
Sun 8 Dec 2019 · Bundesliga19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bayern Munich 0-1 Werder BremenSun 21 Jan 2024 · home win said90 in 100
- Bayern Munich 1-1 Werder BremenSat 21 Nov 2020 · home win said82 in 100
- Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Werder BremenSat 8 Mar 2025 · home win said80 in 100
- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Werder BremenSat 11 May 2024 · home win said79 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Werder BremenSat 9 Dec 2017 · home win said75 in 100
- Hoffenheim 0-1 Werder BremenSat 11 May 2019 · home win said69 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder BremenFri 9 Oct 2026 · home win said69 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Werder BremenSat 20 Aug 2022 · home win said67 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder BremenSat 28 Sep 2019 · home win said66 in 100
VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder BremenSun 26 Apr 2026 · home win said65 in 100
Mainz 05 2-2 Werder BremenSat 8 Apr 2023 · home win said62 in 100- Werder Bremen 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenSat 26 Oct 2024 · away win said62 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Freiburg | 17 | 32 | 24.3 | +7.7 |
  Hoffenheim | 16 | 33 | 26.3 | +6.7 |
  Bayern Munich | 16 | 43 | 39.3 | +3.7 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 17 | 37 | 33.7 | +3.3 |
  Werder Bremen | 277 | 326 | 322.9 | +3.1 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 16 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5 |
  Darmstadt | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 4 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
  FC Heidenheim | 6 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
  Union Berlin | 12 | 19 | 17.8 | +1.2 |
  Paderborn | 2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
  Augsburg | 17 | 23 | 22.4 | +0.6 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Bochum | 6 | 1 | 6.5 | −5.5 |
  Hertha Berlin | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | −5.4 |
  Wolfsburg | 16 | 19 | 24.1 | −5.1 |
  FC Cologne | 13 | 15 | 18.8 | −3.8 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 16 | 28 | 31.0 | −3.0 |
  Schalke 04 | 10 | 10 | 12.9 | −2.9 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 16 | 24 | 26.5 | −2.5 |
  Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 0 | 2.4 | −2.4 |
  Holstein Kiel | 2 | 0 | 2.3 | −2.3 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 17 | 33 | 34.8 | −1.8 |
  Mainz 05 | 16 | 21 | 22.4 | −1.4 |
  St. Pauli | 4 | 4 | 5.4 | −1.4 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Werder Bremen's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 53 | 40 | 25 | 40 | 3.02 | 4.00 | 0.248 |
| 2025-26 | Bundesliga | 34 | 49 | 62 | 25 | 24 | 2.95 | 2.85 | 0.179 |
| 2024-25 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 41 | 25 | 26 | 3.02 | 3.26 | 0.246 |
| 2023-24 | Bundesliga | 34 | 54 | 44 | 23 | 26 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 0.234 |
| 2022-23 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 53 | 25 | 18 | 2.97 | 3.38 | 0.215 |
| 2020-21 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 59 | 26 | 29 | 2.73 | 2.74 | 0.180 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 44 | 24 | 21 | 2.98 | 3.26 | 0.221 |
| 2018-19 | Bundesliga | 34 | 51 | 44 | 25 | 32 | 2.89 | 3.15 | 0.208 |
| 2017-18 | Bundesliga | 34 | 50 | 44 | 25 | 35 | 2.78 | 2.26 | 0.204 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.