All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 39 league matches of Paderborn since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 23, happened 23 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches39each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws23 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.10Vesta expected 3.12
Likeliest score happened10 in 100Vesta said 12
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30 in 100 | 40 | 25.4 | 27.5 | +2.1 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 21 | 34.8 | 42.9 | +8.0 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 Paderborn
Sat 6 Jun 2020 · Bundesliga11 in 100
Borussia Dortmund 3-3 PaderbornFri 22 Nov 2019 · Bundesliga16 in 100
Werder Bremen 0-1 PaderbornSun 8 Dec 2019 · Bundesliga19 in 100- Paderborn 1-3 Freiburg
Sat 24 Aug 2019 · Bundesliga22 in 100 
Mainz 05 0-0 PaderbornSat 29 Aug 2026 · Bundesliga23 in 100
Wolfsburg 1-1 PaderbornSat 31 Aug 2019 · Bundesliga23 in 100- Paderborn 1-1 Hoffenheim
Sat 23 May 2020 · Bundesliga25 in 100 
Schalke 04 1-1 PaderbornSat 8 Feb 2020 · Bundesliga25 in 100
Augsburg 0-0 PaderbornWed 27 May 2020 · Bundesliga26 in 100
Fortuna Duesseldorf 0-0 PaderbornSat 16 May 2020 · Bundesliga26 in 100- Freiburg 0-2 PaderbornSat 25 Jan 2020 · Bundesliga27 in 100
- Paderborn 1-1 Union Berlin
Sat 14 Dec 2019 · Bundesliga27 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- RasenBallsport Leipzig 1-1 PaderbornSat 6 Jun 2020 · home win said84 in 100
- Borussia Dortmund 3-3 PaderbornFri 22 Nov 2019 · home win said74 in 100
- Mainz 05 0-0 PaderbornSat 29 Aug 2026 · home win said60 in 100
- Werder Bremen 0-1 PaderbornSun 8 Dec 2019 · home win said58 in 100
- Paderborn 1-3 FreiburgSat 24 Aug 2019 · home win said55 in 100
- Wolfsburg 1-1 PaderbornSat 31 Aug 2019 · home win said54 in 100
- Schalke 04 1-1 PaderbornSat 8 Feb 2020 · home win said51 in 100
- Augsburg 0-0 PaderbornWed 27 May 2020 · home win said49 in 100
- Freiburg 0-2 PaderbornSat 25 Jan 2020 · home win said48 in 100
- Paderborn 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Sun 22 Dec 2019 · away win said46 in 100 - Paderborn 1-2 Hertha Berlin
Sat 15 Feb 2020 · home win said44 in 100 - Paderborn 1-2 Mainz 05Sat 5 Oct 2019 · home win said44 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Hertha Berlin | 2 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
  FC Cologne | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
  Freiburg | 3 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
  Mainz 05 | 3 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 |
  Borussia M.Gladbach | 2 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
  Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
  VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
  Schalke 04 | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
  Augsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
  Union Berlin | 2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
  Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
  Wolfsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| Club | Matches | Points | Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Paderborn | 39 | 24 | 39.0 | −15.0 |
  Fortuna Duesseldorf | 2 | 1 | 2.9 | −1.9 |
  Hoffenheim | 3 | 4 | 5.1 | −1.1 |
  Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 3 | 3.9 | −0.9 |
  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2 | 4 | 4.8 | −0.8 |
  Werder Bremen | 2 | 3 | 3.2 | −0.2 |
  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| Wolfsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| Bayern Munich | 2 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| Union Berlin | 2 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| Augsburg | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| Schalke 04 | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Paderborn's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Bundesliga | 5 | 48 | 40 | 26 | 20 | 2.91 | 2.00 | 0.223 |
| 2019-20 | Bundesliga | 34 | 55 | 50 | 22 | 24 | 3.16 | 3.26 | 0.201 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.