All questions

Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Roma since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 22 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free

LeagueAll five leaguesPremier LeagueLa LigaSerie ABundesligaLigue 1 SeasonEvery season2026-272025-262024-252023-242022-232021-222020-212019-202018-192017-18 ClubEvery clubArsenalAston VillaBournemouthBrentfordBrightonChelseaCoventryCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamHullIpswichLeedsLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenhamAlavesAthletic ClubAtletico MadridBarcelonaCelta VigoDeportivo La CorunaElcheEspanyolGetafeLevanteMalagaOsasunaRacing SantanderRayo VallecanoReal BetisReal MadridReal SociedadSevillaValenciaVillarrealAC MilanAtalantaBolognaCagliariComoFiorentinaFrosinoneGenoaInterJuventusLazioLecceMonzaNapoliParmaRomaSassuoloTorinoUdineseVeneziaAugsburgBayer LeverkusenBayern MunichBorussia DortmundBorussia M.GladbachEintracht FrankfurtElversbergFC CologneFreiburgHamburger SVHoffenheimMainz 05PaderbornRasenBallsport LeipzigSchalke 04Union BerlinVfB StuttgartWerder BremenAngersAuxerreBrestLe HavreLe MansLensLilleLorientLyonMarseilleMonacoNiceParis FCParis Saint GermainRennesStrasbourgToulouseTroyes Show

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	24	7.9	0.0	−7.9
10–20 in 100	173	15.8	13.9	−1.9
20–30 in 100	422	25.0	21.3	−3.7
30–40 in 100	125	34.9	31.2	−3.7
40–50 in 100	86	45.2	55.8	+10.6
50–60 in 100	110	54.6	60.0	+5.4
60–70 in 100	72	64.7	76.4	+11.7
70–80 in 100	25	73.3	76.0	+2.7

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

Share view

Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Roma	348	621	604.0	+17.0
AC Milan	18	33	24.7	+8.3
Atalanta	19	35	28.2	+6.8
Inter	19	37	31.4	+5.6
Bologna	18	22	17.4	+4.6
Napoli	18	33	29.2	+3.8
Juventus	18	31	27.5	+3.5
SPAL 2013	6	6	3.5	+2.5
Venezia	4	4	2.9	+1.1
Como	5	7	6.4	+0.6
Cremonese	4	3	2.7	+0.3
Chievo	4	2	2.1	−0.1

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Torino	19	11	17.1	−6.1
Lecce	11	2	7.9	−5.9
Fiorentina	19	16	20.9	−4.9
Monza	6	2	5.1	−3.1
Spezia	6	1	4.0	−3.0
Lazio	18	20	22.8	−2.8
Frosinone	4	0	2.5	−2.5
Udinese	18	13	15.2	−2.2
Cagliari	16	9	11.0	−2.0
Crotone	4	0	1.9	−1.9
Pisa	2	0	1.7	−1.7
Salernitana	6	2	3.7	−1.7

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Roma's matches; the current season so far

CSV Share view

Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Serie A	6	53	67	25	33	2.81	2.83	0.108
2025-26	Serie A	38	50	76	28	11	2.45	2.37	0.185
2024-25	Serie A	38	50	66	27	24	2.71	2.39	0.173
2023-24	Serie A	38	51	61	26	24	2.64	2.92	0.172
2022-23	Serie A	38	54	61	25	24	2.71	2.32	0.188
2021-22	Serie A	38	54	61	24	24	3.05	2.68	0.195
2020-21	Serie A	38	56	61	23	24	3.14	3.24	0.180
2019-20	Serie A	38	54	55	23	18	3.05	3.37	0.203
2018-19	Serie A	38	56	53	22	32	3.04	3.00	0.178
2017-18	Serie A	38	61	63	21	21	3.21	2.34	0.175

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

Related questions

Who scores, starts and keeps a clean sheet next?Next round and fixturesWho wins the league, and how likely?Title, top four, relegationWho is over- or under-performing?Goals against expected goals