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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Fiorentina since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 29 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened48 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws29 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.65Vesta expected 2.74
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 10012116.418.2+1.8
20–30 in 10048125.827.7+1.8
30–40 in 10014834.933.8−1.1
40–50 in 10012645.140.5−4.7
50–60 in 10010354.854.4−0.4
60–70 in 1004963.857.1−6.7

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Fiorentina 0-1 CagliariSun 13 May 2018 · Serie A9 in 100
  2. Fiorentina 1-4 VeronaSun 28 Jan 2018 · Serie A9 in 100
  3. Salernitana 2-1 FiorentinaSun 24 Apr 2022 · Serie A10 in 100
  4. Atalanta 1-2 FiorentinaSat 11 Sep 2021 · Serie A12 in 100
  5. Fiorentina 0-2 EmpoliMon 23 Oct 2023 · Serie A12 in 100
  6. Juventus 0-2 FiorentinaSun 17 May 2026 · Serie A13 in 100
  7. Fiorentina 0-1 FrosinoneSun 7 Apr 2019 · Serie A13 in 100
  8. Juventus 0-3 FiorentinaTue 22 Dec 2020 · Serie A13 in 100
  9. Fiorentina 1-2 UdineseMon 23 Dec 2024 · Serie A14 in 100
  10. Fiorentina 0-1 ParmaWed 26 Dec 2018 · Serie A14 in 100
  11. Napoli 1-3 FiorentinaSun 8 Oct 2023 · Serie A15 in 100
  12. Napoli 0-0 FiorentinaSun 10 Dec 2017 · Serie A16 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Napoli 0-0 FiorentinaSun 10 Dec 2017 · home win said76 in 100
  2. Fiorentina 0-1 CagliariSun 13 May 2018 · home win said75 in 100
  3. Fiorentina 1-4 VeronaSun 28 Jan 2018 · home win said74 in 100
  4. Salernitana 2-1 FiorentinaSun 24 Apr 2022 · away win said70 in 100
  5. Fiorentina 0-0 SPAL 2013Sun 15 Apr 2018 · home win said70 in 100
  6. Lazio 1-1 FiorentinaSun 26 Nov 2017 · home win said69 in 100
  7. Atalanta 1-2 FiorentinaSat 11 Sep 2021 · home win said69 in 100
  8. Fiorentina 1-1 SpeziaSat 8 Apr 2023 · home win said68 in 100
  9. Fiorentina 0-2 EmpoliMon 23 Oct 2023 · home win said68 in 100
  10. Fiorentina 1-1 CagliariSun 21 Oct 2018 · home win said67 in 100
  11. Juventus 0-3 FiorentinaTue 22 Dec 2020 · home win said66 in 100
  12. Fiorentina 1-1 InterSun 22 Mar 2026 · away win said66 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Sassuolo162517.9+7.1
Roma193731.0+6.0
Parma10159.2+5.8
Sampdoria121712.5+4.5
Empoli10138.8+4.2
Lazio183127.5+3.5
Frosinone584.7+3.3
Lecce10129.2+2.8
Cagliari161714.7+2.3
Verona161916.9+2.1
Monza686.1+1.9
Venezia575.2+1.8
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Fiorentina348476508.3−32.3
Atalanta182632.6−6.6
Bologna181821.7−3.7
Spezia625.6−3.6
SPAL 2013625.3−3.3
Cremonese403.1−3.1
Genoa171517.3−2.3
Torino192022.2−2.2
Pisa212.1−1.1
Juventus183232.6−0.6
Udinese181818.6−0.6
Chievo433.6−0.6

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Fiorentina's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Serie A6441728172.633.500.253
2025-26Serie A38493727392.632.390.213
2024-25Serie A38505327212.652.660.223
2023-24Serie A38495826242.692.820.202
2022-23Serie A38505326292.732.530.196
2021-22Serie A38505326132.812.890.243
2020-21Serie A38505526342.792.790.187
2019-20Serie A38494526342.732.610.210
2018-19Serie A38513425452.732.420.209
2017-18Serie A38544724242.892.630.238

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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