All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Udinese since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 47 times in 100; it said 51. Draws: said 26, happened 28 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened47 in 100Vesta said 51
Draws28 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.61Vesta expected 2.69
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 21 | 7.9 | 9.5 | +1.6 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 129 | 16.0 | 14.7 | −1.3 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 423 | 26.0 | 29.6 | +3.5 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 196 | 34.3 | 31.6 | −2.7 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 118 | 44.6 | 43.2 | −1.4 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 86 | 54.6 | 47.7 | −6.9 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 43 | 64.5 | 55.8 | −8.7 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 26 | 74.0 | 84.6 | +10.7 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Inter 1-3 Udinese
Sat 16 Dec 2017 · Serie A9 in 100- Inter 1-2 UdineseSun 31 Aug 2025 · Serie A10 in 100
Juventus 0-1 UdineseMon 12 Feb 2024 · Serie A10 in 100
AC Milan 0-1 UdineseSat 4 Nov 2023 · Serie A12 in 100- AC Milan 0-3 UdineseSat 11 Apr 2026 · Serie A12 in 100
- Udinese 0-1 Salernitana
Wed 20 Apr 2022 · Serie A13 in 100 
Fiorentina 1-2 UdineseMon 23 Dec 2024 · Serie A14 in 100
Roma 0-2 UdineseThu 2 Jul 2020 · Serie A14 in 100- Udinese 1-2 Monza
Sun 11 May 2025 · Serie A17 in 100 - Udinese 3-1 InterSun 18 Sep 2022 · Serie A17 in 100
- Udinese 2-1 JuventusThu 23 Jul 2020 · Serie A17 in 100
Lazio 1-2 UdineseMon 11 Mar 2024 · Serie A18 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Inter 1-3 UdineseSat 16 Dec 2017 · home win said73 in 100
- Inter 1-2 UdineseSun 31 Aug 2025 · home win said72 in 100
Napoli 1-1 UdineseSun 9 Feb 2025 · home win said71 in 100
Atalanta 1-1 UdineseSun 24 Oct 2021 · home win said71 in 100- Juventus 0-1 UdineseMon 12 Feb 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- AC Milan 0-1 UdineseSat 4 Nov 2023 · home win said68 in 100
- Udinese 2-2 JuventusSun 22 Aug 2021 · away win said68 in 100
- AC Milan 1-1 UdineseFri 25 Feb 2022 · home win said67 in 100
- AC Milan 0-3 UdineseSat 11 Apr 2026 · home win said67 in 100
- Udinese 1-1 AtalantaWed 20 Jan 2021 · away win said67 in 100
- Udinese 0-1 SalernitanaWed 20 Apr 2022 · home win said66 in 100
- Atalanta 2-2 UdineseSat 7 Mar 2026 · home win said66 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | 6 | 47 | 50 | 27 | 17 | 2.64 | 3.67 | 0.217 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | 38 | 49 | 34 | 28 | 21 | 2.47 | 2.45 | 0.264 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 58 | 28 | 21 | 2.54 | 2.55 | 0.216 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 34 | 27 | 50 | 2.58 | 2.37 | 0.199 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 39 | 26 | 34 | 2.84 | 2.50 | 0.211 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 45 | 25 | 37 | 2.82 | 3.13 | 0.202 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | 38 | 49 | 61 | 26 | 26 | 2.62 | 2.63 | 0.191 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | 38 | 52 | 37 | 25 | 24 | 2.77 | 2.32 | 0.218 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | 38 | 52 | 58 | 25 | 26 | 2.76 | 2.42 | 0.169 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | 38 | 53 | 61 | 24 | 11 | 2.83 | 2.92 | 0.204 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.