All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 310 league matches of Cagliari since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 53 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 25, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches310each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened53 in 100Vesta said 52
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 25
Goals a match2.59Vesta expected 2.80
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 in 100 | 30 | 7.4 | 20.0 | +12.6 |
| 10–20 in 100 | 134 | 15.5 | 12.7 | −2.8 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 347 | 25.8 | 25.6 | −0.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 168 | 34.3 | 29.8 | −4.5 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 98 | 44.0 | 52.0 | +8.1 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 67 | 54.2 | 49.3 | −5.0 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 49 | 65.5 | 73.5 | +8.0 |
| 70–80 in 100 | 30 | 74.7 | 73.3 | −1.3 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Atalanta 0-2 Cagliari
Sun 3 Nov 2019 · Serie A8 in 100- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSat 30 Dec 2017 · Serie A8 in 100
Fiorentina 0-1 CagliariSun 13 May 2018 · Serie A9 in 100
Napoli 0-1 CagliariWed 25 Sep 2019 · Serie A9 in 100- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSun 6 Feb 2022 · Serie A10 in 100
Inter 2-2 CagliariSun 14 Apr 2024 · Serie A10 in 100- Atalanta 0-1 CagliariSun 2 Sep 2018 · Serie A12 in 100
AC Milan 1-2 CagliariSun 24 May 2026 · Serie A13 in 100- Cagliari 2-0 Juventus
Wed 29 Jul 2020 · Serie A14 in 100 - Cagliari 1-0 AtalantaSun 20 May 2018 · Serie A14 in 100
- Cagliari 2-1 InterFri 1 Mar 2019 · Serie A16 in 100
- Atalanta 0-0 CagliariSat 15 Feb 2025 · Serie A16 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Inter 2-2 CagliariSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said87 in 100
- Atalanta 0-2 CagliariSun 3 Nov 2019 · home win said77 in 100
- Atalanta 0-0 CagliariSat 15 Feb 2025 · home win said76 in 100
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSat 30 Dec 2017 · home win said76 in 100
- Napoli 0-1 CagliariWed 25 Sep 2019 · home win said75 in 100
- Fiorentina 0-1 CagliariSun 13 May 2018 · home win said75 in 100
- Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSun 6 Feb 2022 · home win said73 in 100
- Inter 1-1 CagliariSun 26 Jan 2020 · home win said70 in 100
- Cagliari 1-1 NapoliMon 21 Feb 2022 · away win said70 in 100
- AC Milan 1-1 CagliariSat 11 Jan 2025 · home win said69 in 100
- Juventus 1-1 CagliariSun 6 Oct 2024 · home win said69 in 100
- Atalanta 0-1 CagliariSun 2 Sep 2018 · home win said69 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | 6 | 49 | 50 | 28 | 17 | 2.49 | 1.50 | 0.240 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | 38 | 49 | 47 | 28 | 26 | 2.46 | 2.45 | 0.210 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 61 | 26 | 24 | 2.75 | 2.53 | 0.177 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 55 | 26 | 32 | 2.72 | 2.89 | 0.175 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | 38 | 53 | 45 | 24 | 32 | 2.89 | 2.68 | 0.193 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | 38 | 52 | 58 | 24 | 26 | 2.92 | 2.68 | 0.178 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 42 | 24 | 32 | 2.91 | 2.84 | 0.230 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | 38 | 54 | 58 | 24 | 29 | 2.79 | 2.37 | 0.176 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | 38 | 57 | 55 | 22 | 16 | 3.04 | 2.47 | 0.205 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.