All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 348 league matches of Bologna since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 49 times in 100; it said 50. Draws: said 26, happened 28 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened49 in 100Vesta said 50
Draws28 in 100Vesta said 26
Goals a match2.66Vesta expected 2.69
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 117 | 16.4 | 14.5 | −1.9 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 450 | 26.0 | 28.7 | +2.7 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 183 | 34.4 | 30.6 | −3.8 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 120 | 44.7 | 46.7 | +2.0 |
| 50–60 in 100 | 106 | 54.2 | 50.9 | −3.3 |
| 60–70 in 100 | 33 | 64.4 | 54.5 | −9.9 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Inter 0-1 Bologna
Sun 3 Feb 2019 · Serie A9 in 100- Bologna 2-1 InterWed 27 Apr 2022 · Serie A10 in 100
- Bologna 0-1 Parma
Sun 8 Feb 2026 · Serie A13 in 100 - Bologna 2-3 Verona
Mon 30 Dec 2024 · Serie A13 in 100 - Bologna 1-3 Cremonese
Mon 1 Dec 2025 · Serie A13 in 100 - Bologna 1-0 InterSun 26 Feb 2023 · Serie A14 in 100
- Bologna 1-3 Genoa
Sat 24 May 2025 · Serie A14 in 100 
Atalanta 0-2 BolognaSat 8 Apr 2023 · Serie A14 in 100- Bologna 1-2 VeronaSun 8 Mar 2026 · Serie A15 in 100
- Atalanta 0-0 BolognaSat 28 Aug 2021 · Serie A18 in 100
- Bologna 2-3 Crotone
Sat 4 Nov 2017 · Serie A18 in 100 - Bologna 2-0 Roma
Sun 23 Sep 2018 · Serie A19 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Bologna 2-1 InterWed 27 Apr 2022 · away win said73 in 100
- Inter 0-1 BolognaSun 3 Feb 2019 · home win said73 in 100
- Atalanta 0-0 BolognaSat 28 Aug 2021 · home win said71 in 100
Lazio 1-1 BolognaSun 18 Mar 2018 · home win said70 in 100- Inter 2-2 BolognaSat 7 Oct 2023 · home win said70 in 100
AC Milan 0-0 BolognaMon 4 Apr 2022 · home win said70 in 100- Bologna 1-0 InterSun 26 Feb 2023 · away win said66 in 100
Juventus 1-1 BolognaSat 16 Apr 2022 · home win said65 in 100- Bologna 2-2 AtalantaWed 23 Dec 2020 · away win said65 in 100
- Atalanta 0-2 BolognaSat 8 Apr 2023 · home win said64 in 100
- Bologna 0-1 ParmaSun 8 Feb 2026 · home win said64 in 100
- Bologna 2-2 Napoli
Sun 28 May 2023 · away win said64 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | 6 | 46 | 50 | 29 | 33 | 2.43 | 2.00 | 0.194 |
| 2025-26 | Serie A | 38 | 48 | 55 | 28 | 21 | 2.43 | 2.50 | 0.237 |
| 2024-25 | Serie A | 38 | 48 | 47 | 28 | 37 | 2.51 | 2.74 | 0.200 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | 38 | 48 | 37 | 28 | 37 | 2.50 | 2.26 | 0.206 |
| 2022-23 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 39 | 26 | 32 | 2.79 | 2.68 | 0.225 |
| 2021-22 | Serie A | 38 | 51 | 55 | 25 | 26 | 2.88 | 2.61 | 0.219 |
| 2020-21 | Serie A | 38 | 49 | 55 | 25 | 29 | 2.90 | 3.05 | 0.171 |
| 2019-20 | Serie A | 38 | 50 | 39 | 25 | 29 | 2.90 | 3.08 | 0.223 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | 38 | 53 | 53 | 25 | 29 | 2.64 | 2.74 | 0.190 |
| 2017-18 | Serie A | 38 | 53 | 58 | 25 | 16 | 2.66 | 2.42 | 0.195 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.