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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of AC Milan since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 25 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.74Vesta expected 2.86
Likeliest score happened12 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
0–10 in 100298.36.9−1.4
10–20 in 10018215.812.6−3.1
20–30 in 10041025.224.4−0.8
30–40 in 10012334.937.4+2.5
40–50 in 1009345.248.4+3.2
50–60 in 1009454.959.6+4.7
60–70 in 1007565.265.3+0.1
70–80 in 1003473.573.5+0.1

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. AC Milan 1-2 SpeziaMon 17 Jan 2022 · Serie A8 in 100
  2. AC Milan 0-1 ParmaSun 22 Feb 2026 · Serie A10 in 100
  3. AC Milan 0-1 BeneventoSat 21 Apr 2018 · Serie A11 in 100
  4. AC Milan 0-1 UdineseSat 4 Nov 2023 · Serie A12 in 100
  5. AC Milan 0-3 UdineseSat 11 Apr 2026 · Serie A12 in 100
  6. AC Milan 2-5 SassuoloSun 29 Jan 2023 · Serie A12 in 100
  7. Spezia 2-0 AC MilanSat 13 May 2023 · Serie A13 in 100
  8. AC Milan 3-3 SalernitanaSat 25 May 2024 · Serie A13 in 100
  9. Salernitana 2-2 AC MilanSat 19 Feb 2022 · Serie A13 in 100
  10. AC Milan 1-2 CagliariSun 24 May 2026 · Serie A13 in 100
  11. AC Milan 1-1 CremoneseWed 3 May 2023 · Serie A14 in 100
  12. Spezia 2-0 AC MilanSat 13 Feb 2021 · Serie A14 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. AC Milan 3-3 SalernitanaSat 25 May 2024 · home win said82 in 100
  2. Salernitana 2-2 AC MilanSat 19 Feb 2022 · away win said81 in 100
  3. AC Milan 1-1 CremoneseWed 3 May 2023 · home win said80 in 100
  4. AC Milan 1-1 SalernitanaMon 13 Mar 2023 · home win said77 in 100
  5. AC Milan 0-0 EmpoliFri 7 Apr 2023 · home win said76 in 100
  6. AC Milan 1-2 SpeziaMon 17 Jan 2022 · home win said76 in 100
  7. AC Milan 2-2 ParmaSun 13 Dec 2020 · home win said73 in 100
  8. Genoa 2-2 AC MilanWed 16 Dec 2020 · away win said73 in 100
  9. AC Milan 0-0 GenoaSun 15 Dec 2024 · home win said73 in 100
  10. AC Milan 0-1 BeneventoSat 21 Apr 2018 · home win said71 in 100
  11. AC Milan 0-1 ParmaSun 22 Feb 2026 · home win said70 in 100
  12. AC Milan 0-0 BolognaMon 4 Apr 2022 · home win said70 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
AC Milan348653609.1+43.9
Spezia693.1+5.9
Sassuolo171814.2+3.8
Udinese181714.3+2.7
Cremonese452.3+2.7
Juventus193128.7+2.3
Torino192018.0+2.0
Benevento442.3+1.7
Parma1097.3+1.7
Salernitana642.5+1.5
Napoli182928.4+0.6
Inter183029.7+0.3
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Bologna18716.7−9.7
Roma181524.5−9.5
Verona16511.6−6.6
Cagliari16711.5−4.5
Empoli1026.4−4.4
Lecce1137.3−4.3
SPAL 2013615.2−4.2
Genoa16812.2−4.2
Como414.5−3.5
Venezia503.3−3.3
Chievo403.0−3.0
Lazio192124.0−3.0

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

AC Milan's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Serie A6515027502.682.670.121
2025-26Serie A38534726262.692.320.230
2024-25Serie A38535825242.842.740.185
2023-24Serie A38556324242.883.290.181
2022-23Serie A38585023262.902.820.211
2021-22Serie A38586123213.042.630.185
2020-21Serie A38585822183.173.030.192
2019-20Serie A38505826242.762.870.191
2018-19Serie A38525325292.652.390.171
2017-18Serie A38536124262.812.580.181

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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