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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 196 league matches of Lecce since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 26, happened 27 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	20	7.3	5.0	−2.3
10–20 in 100	88	15.7	11.4	−4.3
20–30 in 100	203	25.8	29.6	+3.8
30–40 in 100	119	33.6	31.9	−1.7
40–50 in 100	61	45.1	36.1	−9.1
50–60 in 100	47	55.0	57.4	+2.4
60–70 in 100	29	65.2	65.5	+0.3

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Bologna	11	27	19.4	+7.6
Roma	11	29	22.5	+6.5
Verona	10	19	14.1	+4.9
Como	4	12	7.6	+4.4
AC Milan	11	27	23.2	+3.8
Inter	10	28	24.7	+3.3
Juventus	10	24	21.3	+2.7
Udinese	10	17	15.4	+1.6
Napoli	10	23	21.8	+1.2
Parma	6	10	9.1	+0.9
Brescia	2	3	2.2	+0.8
Atalanta	10	22	22.0	0.0

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lazio	10	14	19.9	−5.9
Monza	7	4	9.6	−5.6
Lecce	196	187	192.5	−5.5
Venezia	3	1	4.8	−3.8
Fiorentina	10	15	18.1	−3.1
SPAL 2013	2	0	2.9	−2.9
Pisa	2	0	2.9	−2.9
Empoli	6	6	7.8	−1.8
Frosinone	2	1	2.8	−1.8
Salernitana	4	3	4.2	−1.2
Cremonese	4	4	5.0	−1.0
Sampdoria	4	5	5.9	−0.9

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Lecce's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Serie A	6	53	67	27	0	2.54	3.00	0.196
2025-26	Serie A	38	52	55	27	21	2.41	2.05	0.185
2024-25	Serie A	38	53	61	27	26	2.54	2.24	0.174
2023-24	Serie A	38	50	47	27	37	2.50	2.26	0.164
2022-23	Serie A	38	49	39	27	32	2.51	2.08	0.220
2019-20	Serie A	38	57	50	21	21	3.33	3.61	0.211

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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