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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Lazio since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 57 times in 100; it said 52. Draws: said 25, happened 22 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

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When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
10–20 in 100	151	15.9	16.6	+0.7
20–30 in 100	448	25.5	21.9	−3.6
30–40 in 100	124	34.4	28.2	−6.2
40–50 in 100	125	45.5	60.0	+14.5
50–60 in 100	97	54.5	57.7	+3.2
60–70 in 100	54	64.8	61.1	−3.7
70–80 in 100	24	73.4	87.5	+14.1

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

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Underrated: more points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Lazio	348	611	570.8	+40.2
Lecce	10	14	7.6	+6.4
AC Milan	19	33	27.9	+5.1
SPAL 2013	6	7	3.5	+3.5
Inter	18	34	31.2	+2.8
Roma	18	29	26.4	+2.6
Salernitana	6	6	3.7	+2.3
Como	4	7	4.8	+2.2
Juventus	18	31	29.1	+1.9
Chievo	4	4	2.3	+1.7
Napoli	18	32	31.0	+1.0
Torino	18	19	18.3	+0.7

Overrated: fewer points than expected

Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Cagliari	16	3	12.5	−9.5
Empoli	10	2	8.3	−6.3
Sampdoria	12	5	10.9	−5.9
Genoa	17	10	14.8	−4.8
Spezia	6	0	4.6	−4.6
Monza	7	2	6.4	−4.4
Verona	16	10	14.1	−4.1
Venezia	5	1	4.0	−3.0
Frosinone	4	0	2.8	−2.8
Fiorentina	18	19	21.7	−2.7
Parma	10	5	7.2	−2.2
Cremonese	4	1	3.2	−2.2

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Lazio's matches; the current season so far

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Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Serie A	6	43	67	29	17	2.50	2.50	0.219
2025-26	Serie A	38	48	50	28	32	2.46	2.13	0.199
2024-25	Serie A	38	49	50	27	29	2.62	2.89	0.213
2023-24	Serie A	38	50	50	27	18	2.58	2.32	0.227
2022-23	Serie A	38	51	55	25	21	2.82	2.37	0.223
2021-22	Serie A	38	52	61	25	26	3.01	3.55	0.177
2020-21	Serie A	38	52	61	25	13	2.92	3.05	0.205
2019-20	Serie A	38	56	68	23	16	3.05	3.18	0.170
2018-19	Serie A	38	55	61	23	21	2.89	2.68	0.197
2017-18	Serie A	38	60	61	21	24	3.21	3.63	0.176

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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