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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Atalanta since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 55 times in 100; it said 58. Draws: said 23, happened 24 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened55 in 100Vesta said 58
Draws24 in 100Vesta said 23
Goals a match3.05Vesta expected 3.00
Likeliest score happened13 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
0–10 in 100557.59.1+1.6
10–20 in 10022215.419.4+4.0
20–30 in 10035124.825.9+1.1
30–40 in 10010734.828.0−6.8
40–50 in 1007544.844.0−0.8
50–60 in 1007955.051.9−3.1
60–70 in 1008664.867.4+2.7
70–80 in 1005874.972.4−2.5

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Atalanta 1-2 SPAL 2013Mon 20 Jan 2020 · Serie A5 in 100
  2. Atalanta 0-1 EmpoliSat 21 May 2022 · Serie A7 in 100
  3. Atalanta 0-2 CagliariSun 3 Nov 2019 · Serie A8 in 100
  4. Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSat 30 Dec 2017 · Serie A8 in 100
  5. Atalanta 1-2 CagliariSun 6 Feb 2022 · Serie A10 in 100
  6. Atalanta 2-3 ParmaSun 25 May 2025 · Serie A10 in 100
  7. Atalanta 2-2 GenoaSun 2 Feb 2020 · Serie A11 in 100
  8. Atalanta 1-2 SampdoriaTue 3 Apr 2018 · Serie A11 in 100
  9. Atalanta 1-2 FiorentinaSat 11 Sep 2021 · Serie A12 in 100
  10. Atalanta 0-1 CagliariSun 2 Sep 2018 · Serie A12 in 100
  11. Atalanta 1-1 PisaSun 24 Aug 2025 · Serie A12 in 100
  12. Atalanta 1-1 LecceSun 27 Apr 2025 · Serie A13 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Atalanta 2-2 GenoaSun 2 Feb 2020 · home win said83 in 100
  2. Atalanta 1-1 PisaSun 24 Aug 2025 · home win said83 in 100
  3. Atalanta 1-1 LecceSun 27 Apr 2025 · home win said83 in 100
  4. Atalanta 1-2 SPAL 2013Mon 20 Jan 2020 · home win said83 in 100
  5. Atalanta 1-1 ChievoSun 17 Mar 2019 · home win said80 in 100
  6. Atalanta 1-1 SalernitanaMon 2 May 2022 · home win said80 in 100
  7. Atalanta 0-1 EmpoliSat 21 May 2022 · home win said80 in 100
  8. Atalanta 0-0 VeneziaSat 1 Mar 2025 · home win said79 in 100
  9. Atalanta 0-0 GenoaSun 17 Jan 2021 · home win said79 in 100
  10. Genoa 0-0 AtalantaTue 21 Dec 2021 · away win said79 in 100
  11. Atalanta 0-2 CagliariSun 3 Nov 2019 · home win said77 in 100
  12. Atalanta 0-0 CagliariSat 15 Feb 2025 · home win said76 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Cagliari17259.7+15.3
Inter183728.3+8.7
Fiorentina182316.9+6.1
SPAL 2013683.4+4.6
Sampdoria12138.4+4.6
Napoli183126.5+4.5
Bologna191815.6+2.4
Torino181715.6+1.4
Salernitana642.7+1.3
Lecce1075.9+1.1
Empoli1076.0+1.0
Pisa221.0+1.0
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Atalanta348619654.3−35.3
Roma191723.9−6.9
Monza604.0−4.0
Genoa16810.2−2.2
Benevento401.8−1.8
Venezia512.7−1.7
Parma1045.5−1.5
Lazio181920.3−1.3
Crotone412.0−1.0
AC Milan182122.0−1.0
Spezia622.9−0.9
Juventus192626.9−0.9

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Atalanta's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Serie A652832702.732.670.197
2025-26Serie A38544525372.722.290.213
2024-25Serie A38575824212.933.030.201
2023-24Serie A38525825162.793.000.187
2022-23Serie A38545824182.953.000.206
2021-22Serie A38614221293.182.970.232
2020-21Serie A38636320243.273.610.168
2019-20Serie A38635820243.343.840.175
2018-19Serie A38575523242.983.240.207
2017-18Serie A38575323322.852.530.193

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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