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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Torino since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 48 times in 100; it said 49. Draws: said 27, happened 32 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened48 in 100Vesta said 49
Draws32 in 100Vesta said 27
Goals a match2.50Vesta expected 2.65
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 10012316.210.6−5.6
20–30 in 10041726.029.3+3.2
30–40 in 10023134.133.3−0.8
40–50 in 10012244.442.6−1.8
50–60 in 1009554.554.7+0.2
60–70 in 1003664.852.8−12.1

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Lazio 1-3 TorinoMon 11 Dec 2017 · Serie A13 in 100
  2. Napoli 2-2 TorinoSun 6 May 2018 · Serie A14 in 100
  3. Atalanta 2-3 TorinoSun 1 Sep 2019 · Serie A14 in 100
  4. Roma 0-2 TorinoSun 5 Jan 2020 · Serie A14 in 100
  5. Torino 1-2 ParmaSat 10 Nov 2018 · Serie A15 in 100
  6. Torino 1-2 VeneziaSat 12 Feb 2022 · Serie A15 in 100
  7. Torino 0-1 SpeziaSun 15 Jan 2023 · Serie A16 in 100
  8. Roma 0-1 TorinoSun 14 Sep 2025 · Serie A17 in 100
  9. Torino 1-0 NapoliSat 18 Oct 2025 · Serie A17 in 100
  10. Inter 1-1 TorinoSun 5 Nov 2017 · Serie A17 in 100
  11. Atalanta 3-3 TorinoSat 6 Feb 2021 · Serie A19 in 100
  12. Torino 2-2 InterSun 26 Apr 2026 · Serie A20 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Napoli 2-2 TorinoSun 6 May 2018 · home win said80 in 100
  2. Inter 1-1 TorinoSun 5 Nov 2017 · home win said72 in 100
  3. Torino 2-2 InterSun 26 Apr 2026 · away win said70 in 100
  4. Lazio 1-3 TorinoMon 11 Dec 2017 · home win said70 in 100
  5. Atalanta 3-3 TorinoSat 6 Feb 2021 · home win said69 in 100
  6. Napoli 0-0 TorinoSun 17 Feb 2019 · home win said67 in 100
  7. Napoli 1-1 TorinoWed 23 Dec 2020 · home win said67 in 100
  8. Juventus 1-1 TorinoFri 3 May 2019 · home win said67 in 100
  9. Torino 2-2 VeronaSun 1 Oct 2017 · home win said66 in 100
  10. Roma 0-2 TorinoSun 5 Jan 2020 · home win said65 in 100
  11. Atalanta 2-3 TorinoSun 1 Sep 2019 · home win said65 in 100
  12. Torino 0-0 SalernitanaSun 4 Feb 2024 · home win said64 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Roma194435.0+9.0
Cagliari162317.8+5.2
Juventus184035.3+4.7
Spezia6105.9+4.1
Como496.4+2.6
Inter184037.8+2.2
Lecce101310.9+2.1
Torino348446444.0+2.0
Parma101311.2+1.8
Napoli183836.4+1.6
Bologna192725.8+1.2
Crotone453.8+1.2
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Genoa161119.5−8.5
Sassuolo171523.2−8.2
Verona161118.6−7.6
Udinese191823.1−5.1
Monza636.4−3.4
Sampdoria121215.0−3.0
Lazio182831.0−3.0
Cremonese424.4−2.4
Brescia202.4−2.4
Salernitana635.4−2.4
AC Milan193234.1−2.1
Benevento424.1−2.1

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Torino's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Serie A6486728172.632.670.184
2025-26Serie A38485828242.442.820.217
2024-25Serie A38464229372.362.210.189
2023-24Serie A38474729372.331.890.179
2022-23Serie A38485327292.602.180.205
2021-22Serie A38505026292.702.290.205
2020-21Serie A38503925422.913.130.185
2019-20Serie A38495525182.793.000.214
2018-19Serie A38503926392.702.340.198
2017-18Serie A38534524393.002.630.182

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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