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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Inter since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 64 times in 100; it said 62. Draws: said 21, happened 21 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches348each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened64 in 100Vesta said 62
Draws21 in 100Vesta said 21
Goals a match2.96Vesta expected 3.07
Likeliest score happened14 in 100Vesta said 12

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
0–10 in 1001037.28.7+1.5
10–20 in 10026615.411.7−3.8
20–30 in 10028424.726.1+1.4
30–40 in 1006534.723.1−11.7
40–50 in 1006245.151.6+6.5
50–60 in 1007055.562.9+7.4
60–70 in 1007264.765.3+0.6
70–80 in 1009074.373.3−1.0
80–90 in 1003183.293.5+10.3

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Sassuolo 1-0 InterSat 4 May 2024 · Serie A6 in 100
  2. Inter 0-1 EmpoliMon 23 Jan 2023 · Serie A6 in 100
  3. Inter 1-2 SassuoloWed 27 Sep 2023 · Serie A8 in 100
  4. Inter 0-1 BolognaSun 3 Feb 2019 · Serie A9 in 100
  5. Inter 1-3 UdineseSat 16 Dec 2017 · Serie A9 in 100
  6. Inter 0-2 SassuoloSun 20 Feb 2022 · Serie A9 in 100
  7. Bologna 2-1 InterWed 27 Apr 2022 · Serie A10 in 100
  8. Inter 2-2 CagliariSun 14 Apr 2024 · Serie A10 in 100
  9. Inter 1-2 UdineseSun 31 Aug 2025 · Serie A10 in 100
  10. Spezia 2-1 InterFri 10 Mar 2023 · Serie A10 in 100
  11. Inter 0-1 ParmaSat 15 Sep 2018 · Serie A10 in 100
  12. Inter 1-2 SassuoloSat 12 May 2018 · Serie A11 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Inter 2-2 CagliariSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said87 in 100
  2. Sassuolo 1-0 InterSat 4 May 2024 · away win said81 in 100
  3. Inter 0-1 EmpoliMon 23 Jan 2023 · home win said80 in 100
  4. Inter 1-1 VeronaSun 17 May 2026 · home win said79 in 100
  5. Inter 1-1 CrotoneSat 3 Feb 2018 · home win said78 in 100
  6. Genoa 0-0 InterFri 25 Feb 2022 · away win said78 in 100
  7. Inter 1-2 SassuoloWed 27 Sep 2023 · home win said77 in 100
  8. Salernitana 1-1 InterFri 7 Apr 2023 · away win said75 in 100
  9. Spezia 1-1 InterWed 21 Apr 2021 · away win said75 in 100
  10. Inter 0-2 SassuoloSun 20 Feb 2022 · home win said75 in 100
  11. Inter 2-2 ParmaSat 26 Oct 2019 · home win said74 in 100
  12. Inter 2-2 ParmaSat 31 Oct 2020 · home win said74 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Inter348748708.2+39.8
Sassuolo16209.9+10.1
Juventus183222.5+9.5
Bologna181912.5+6.5
Spezia642.3+1.7
AC Milan182119.6+1.4
Monza753.6+1.4
Parma1165.4+0.6
Udinese191110.6+0.4
Crotone411.5−0.5
Salernitana611.7−0.7
Pisa201.0−1.0
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Atalanta181021.1−11.1
Roma191320.8−7.8
Napoli191724.6−7.6
Verona1638.3−5.3
Cagliari1758.6−3.6
Genoa1669.3−3.3
Como403.3−3.3
Fiorentina181215.0−3.0
Sampdoria1257.9−2.9
Lecce1013.8−2.8
SPAL 2013613.7−2.7
Lazio181618.4−2.4

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Inter's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2026-27Serie A6668320173.124.330.066
2025-26Serie A38637121162.943.260.143
2024-25Serie A38646121243.073.000.149
2023-24Serie A38667620183.122.920.146
2022-23Serie A3862632183.162.970.229
2021-22Serie A38666619243.293.050.144
2020-21Serie A38627420183.233.260.129
2019-20Serie A38576323262.963.080.159
2018-19Serie A38565323242.822.370.202
2017-18Serie A38605022323.042.530.184

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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