All questions
Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?
Over 82 league matches of Frosinone since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 56 times in 100; it said 55. Draws: said 24, happened 27 in 100.
Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast
Matches82each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened56 in 100Vesta said 55
Draws27 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.77Vesta expected 2.81
Likeliest score happened17 in 100Vesta said 13
When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened
every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right| Chance band | Chances | Said | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20 in 100 | 43 | 15.3 | 11.6 | −3.7 |
| 20–30 in 100 | 98 | 25.7 | 25.5 | −0.2 |
| 30–40 in 100 | 26 | 35.0 | 23.1 | −12.0 |
| 40–50 in 100 | 26 | 45.3 | 53.8 | +8.5 |
The biggest surprises
results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
Fiorentina 0-1 Frosinone
Sun 7 Apr 2019 · Serie A13 in 100
Napoli 2-2 FrosinoneSun 14 Apr 2024 · Serie A15 in 100
Sampdoria 0-1 FrosinoneSun 10 Feb 2019 · Serie A15 in 100
SPAL 2013 0-3 FrosinoneSun 28 Oct 2018 · Serie A19 in 100- Frosinone 2-0 Como
Sun 20 Sep 2026 · Serie A20 in 100 
Bologna 0-4 FrosinoneSun 27 Jan 2019 · Serie A21 in 100
Torino 0-0 FrosinoneSun 21 Apr 2024 · Serie A24 in 100
Sassuolo 2-2 FrosinoneSun 5 May 2019 · Serie A24 in 100- Frosinone 0-0 AC Milan
Wed 26 Dec 2018 · Serie A25 in 100 - Frosinone 1-1 FiorentinaFri 9 Nov 2018 · Serie A25 in 100
Genoa 0-0 FrosinoneSun 3 Mar 2019 · Serie A25 in 100
Parma 0-0 FrosinoneSun 4 Nov 2018 · Serie A26 in 100
The surest calls that missed
the strongest favourites that did not win- Napoli 2-2 FrosinoneSun 14 Apr 2024 · home win said78 in 100
- Fiorentina 0-1 FrosinoneSun 7 Apr 2019 · home win said66 in 100
- Sampdoria 0-1 FrosinoneSun 10 Feb 2019 · home win said64 in 100
- Torino 0-0 FrosinoneSun 21 Apr 2024 · home win said62 in 100
- Frosinone 0-0 AC MilanWed 26 Dec 2018 · away win said59 in 100
- SPAL 2013 0-3 FrosinoneSun 28 Oct 2018 · home win said58 in 100
- Sassuolo 2-2 FrosinoneSun 5 May 2019 · home win said56 in 100
- Genoa 0-0 FrosinoneSun 3 Mar 2019 · home win said55 in 100
- Frosinone 1-1 FiorentinaFri 9 Nov 2018 · away win said55 in 100
- Frosinone 2-0 ComoSun 20 Sep 2026 · away win said55 in 100
Udinese 1-1 FrosinoneSat 22 Dec 2018 · home win said53 in 100- Bologna 0-4 FrosinoneSun 27 Jan 2019 · home win said53 in 100
Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta
points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
League by league, season by seasonLeague by league
Frosinone's matches; the current season so far| Season | League | Matches | Likeliest said | Happened | Draws said | Draws | Goals expected | Goals | RPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Serie A | 6 | 48 | 50 | 28 | 17 | 2.64 | 2.67 | 0.235 |
| 2023-24 | Serie A | 38 | 52 | 58 | 25 | 29 | 2.82 | 2.97 | 0.160 |
| 2018-19 | Serie A | 38 | 58 | 55 | 23 | 26 | 2.82 | 2.58 | 0.168 |
Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.