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Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 114 league matches of SPAL 2013 since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 51 times in 100; it said 54. Draws: said 24, happened 25 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free
Matches114each forecast before its season
Likeliest result happened51 in 100Vesta said 54
Draws25 in 100Vesta said 24
Goals a match2.65Vesta expected 2.78
Likeliest score happened15 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right
00252550507575100100 Vesta said (in 100)
Chance bandChancesSaidHappenedGap
10–20 in 1005115.715.70.0
20–30 in 10013225.926.5+0.6
30–40 in 1004734.738.3+3.6
40–50 in 1003944.243.6−0.6
50–60 in 1002755.144.4−10.6

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened
  1. Atalanta 1-2 SPAL 2013Mon 20 Jan 2020 · Serie A5 in 100
  2. Roma 0-2 SPAL 2013Sat 20 Oct 2018 · Serie A10 in 100
  3. Lazio 0-0 SPAL 2013Sun 20 Aug 2017 · Serie A11 in 100
  4. SPAL 2013 2-1 JuventusSat 13 Apr 2019 · Serie A11 in 100
  5. SPAL 2013 0-0 JuventusSat 17 Mar 2018 · Serie A16 in 100
  6. Atalanta 1-1 SPAL 2013Sun 5 Nov 2017 · Serie A18 in 100
  7. SPAL 2013 1-0 LazioWed 3 Apr 2019 · Serie A18 in 100
  8. SPAL 2013 0-3 FrosinoneSun 28 Oct 2018 · Serie A19 in 100
  9. Fiorentina 0-0 SPAL 2013Sun 15 Apr 2018 · Serie A20 in 100
  10. SPAL 2013 0-1 BresciaSun 8 Dec 2019 · Serie A20 in 100
  11. SPAL 2013 2-0 AtalantaMon 17 Sep 2018 · Serie A21 in 100
  12. SPAL 2013 2-1 RomaSat 16 Mar 2019 · Serie A21 in 100

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win
  1. Lazio 0-0 SPAL 2013Sun 20 Aug 2017 · home win said85 in 100
  2. Atalanta 1-2 SPAL 2013Mon 20 Jan 2020 · home win said83 in 100
  3. SPAL 2013 0-0 JuventusSat 17 Mar 2018 · away win said78 in 100
  4. Atalanta 1-1 SPAL 2013Sun 5 Nov 2017 · home win said74 in 100
  5. Roma 0-2 SPAL 2013Sat 20 Oct 2018 · home win said71 in 100
  6. Fiorentina 0-0 SPAL 2013Sun 15 Apr 2018 · home win said70 in 100
  7. SPAL 2013 2-1 JuventusSat 13 Apr 2019 · away win said69 in 100
  8. SPAL 2013 1-1 AtalantaSat 7 Apr 2018 · away win said65 in 100
  9. SPAL 2013 1-1 NapoliSun 27 Oct 2019 · away win said59 in 100
  10. Udinese 1-1 SPAL 2013Sun 21 Jan 2018 · home win said58 in 100
  11. SPAL 2013 0-3 FrosinoneSun 28 Oct 2018 · home win said58 in 100
  12. SPAL 2013 1-1 InterSun 28 Jan 2018 · away win said57 in 100

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches
Underrated: more points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
Cagliari6168.0+8.0
Sampdoria6159.8+5.2
AC Milan61611.3+4.7
Sassuolo6149.3+4.7
Brescia262.3+3.7
Lecce262.6+3.4
Inter61613.1+2.9
Fiorentina61411.2+2.8
Napoli61613.6+2.4
Verona475.6+1.4
Bologna6108.9+1.1
Frosinone232.2+0.8
Overrated: fewer points than expected
ClubMatchesPointsExpectedGap
SPAL 2013114100115.0−15.0
Parma405.5−5.5
Atalanta6813.5−5.5
Lazio61013.4−3.4
Benevento202.6−2.6
Genoa679.2−2.2
Empoli213.1−2.1
Crotone212.6−1.6
Juventus61314.5−1.5
Roma61213.3−1.3
Torino6910.3−1.3
Chievo455.3−0.3

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

SPAL 2013's matches; the current season so far
CSV
SeasonLeagueMatchesLikeliest saidHappenedDraws saidDrawsGoals expectedGoalsRPS
2019-20Serie A38526125132.812.740.207
2018-19Serie A38524725242.652.630.226
2017-18Serie A38564523372.872.580.183

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

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