All questions

Where was Vesta right, and where wrong?

Over 348 league matches of Juventus since 2017-18, each forecast by a model that had not seen that season, Vesta's likeliest result happened 62 times in 100; it said 57. Draws: said 24, happened 24 in 100.

Since its public record began on 30 Sep 2026: 51 league matches settled, the likeliest result happened 61 times in 100 (Vesta said 50). Every published forecast

League data to Fri 16 Oct · Vesta · out of sample, 2017-18 on

Free

League Season Club

Matches348each forecast before its season

Likeliest result happened62 in 100Vesta said 57

Draws24 in 100Vesta said 24

Goals a match2.63Vesta expected 2.79

Likeliest score happened16 in 100Vesta said 13

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

every home win, draw and away win chance, grouped in bands of 10; on the line = exactly right

Chance band	Chances	Said	Happened	Gap
0–10 in 100	65	6.7	1.5	−5.2
10–20 in 100	199	15.3	12.1	−3.3
20–30 in 100	357	25.2	24.4	−0.8
30–40 in 100	117	34.3	31.6	−2.7
40–50 in 100	78	44.7	50.0	+5.3
50–60 in 100	88	55.3	62.5	+7.2
60–70 in 100	78	65.2	66.7	+1.4
70–80 in 100	38	74.7	84.2	+9.5
80–90 in 100	22	83.0	86.4	+3.4

The biggest surprises

results Vesta gave the least chance that happened

The surest calls that missed

the strongest favourites that did not win

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

points won against the points Vesta's forecasts gave (3 × win + draw), these matches

Underrated: more points than expected
Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Juventus	348	709	659.1	+49.9
Napoli	18	29	24.5	+4.5
Benevento	4	4	1.3	+2.7
Sassuolo	17	15	12.8	+2.2
Como	4	6	3.9	+2.1
Empoli	10	8	6.5	+1.5
Monza	6	6	4.5	+1.5
SPAL 2013	6	4	2.5	+1.5
Crotone	4	2	1.5	+0.5
Verona	16	11	10.6	+0.4
Fiorentina	18	17	16.8	+0.2
Venezia	4	2	2.2	−0.2

Overrated: fewer points than expected
Club	Matches	Points	Expected	Gap
Inter	18	17	26.7	−9.7
Bologna	18	6	15.0	−9.0
Torino	18	7	14.2	−7.2
Roma	18	16	21.6	−5.6
Udinese	18	7	12.4	−5.4
Atalanta	19	20	24.9	−4.9
AC Milan	19	19	23.2	−4.2
Spezia	6	0	3.5	−3.5
Lecce	10	3	6.4	−3.4
Cremonese	4	0	2.7	−2.7
Frosinone	5	0	2.6	−2.6
Parma	11	5	6.5	−1.5

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Juventus's matches; the current season so far

CSV

Season	League	Matches	Likeliest said	Happened	Draws said	Draws	Goals expected	Goals	RPS
2026-27	Serie A	6	53	50	27	33	2.53	2.33	0.177
2025-26	Serie A	38	52	55	27	32	2.52	2.50	0.189
2024-25	Serie A	38	51	50	27	42	2.47	2.45	0.161
2023-24	Serie A	38	54	53	25	37	2.63	2.24	0.175
2022-23	Serie A	38	52	66	26	16	2.70	2.34	0.197
2021-22	Serie A	38	57	63	23	26	2.94	2.47	0.173
2020-21	Serie A	38	59	63	22	24	3.04	3.03	0.169
2019-20	Serie A	38	58	63	23	13	2.92	3.13	0.175
2018-19	Serie A	38	65	71	20	16	2.89	2.63	0.144
2017-18	Serie A	38	68	76	19	13	3.01	2.89	0.123

Each season from 2017-18 was hidden from Vesta and forecast with a model fitted only on the seasons before it, the same model that publishes today's forecasts (checked Tue 13 Oct 2026). These are the forecasts of past seasons, not the published ones: the public record of forecasts made before kick-off starts on 30 Sep 2026 and lives in Vesta's track record.

When Vesta says N in 100, does it happen N times?Said v happened

The biggest surprises

The surest calls that missed

Which clubs beat Vesta's expectationsClubs v Vesta

League by league, season by seasonLeague by league

Related questions